This summer will be decisive for economy and wall street

Several large events, databases, progress reports and deals are closed this summer. Falling, the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs and financial policy should be clearer, gives the federal reserves enough to move on interest rates.

Here are the factors that will show the scales:

A great nice law

This week can come to the key as soon as possible. Trump, Tax Details and Spending Priorities set a great beautiful bill to congress 4 July.

Representatives Chamber of Representatives and the The Senate has developed someone apartThe narrow majority in both rooms of the GOP are specifying the time and exact provisions of the final package.

Logrolling in all necessary Congress can push the schedule on July 4, July 4, especially announced by several republics They do not want to be re-electedThey make them less susceptible to Trump’s twist.

Wall Street, economy and exchange water, and the bond market will monitor the impact of the bill to the US debt. The Congress Budget Management estimated that the Senate will add to the version of the bill in the Senate $ 3.3 trillion to imperfection for more than a decade.

The more financial sticker shock, the higher the treasury products, and more than 50 years can put pressure more than 10% this year.

Debt ceiling

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, if the debt ceiling was not lifted, he estimated that the United States could not pay until the end.

It is up to the congress to increase the debt limit, so that we will never promise that the United States will never be standard, to provide fresh bonds for service expenditures and maturity.

A great beautiful law will increase the debt ceiling for the trillions of dollars. Meanwhile, the Treasury Department uses unusual cash management measures to not stand out.

Bessent said that last week that these extraordinary events are expanding the authority to use these extraordinary measures by July 24 Open reminder for Congress Raise the debt ceiling before the typical August break.

To improve the debt limit and prevent the global financial melting to prevent the US standard.

Tariffs and Trade Deals

Trump administration officials say that the main trade deals have been approaching since the “Day of Liberty Day” in April. So far, the United States has reached contracts with the UK and China, and negotiations with other best trade partners continue.

At the same time, the 90-day break of Trump’s “mutual” tariffs will end on July 9, after which, the epic will jump again to the level of sale.

Bessent, on this deadline, has signaled comfort on this deadline or said that so many trading deals can get it with Labor Day. But the weekend, Trump repeats the desire to share with any negotiations and Set a unilateral rule of tariff in each country.

Returning to the sudden high tariffs would make another leap to Wall Street waiting for tasks Solve 10% as a result For most countries, mainly 30% for Chinese-manageable levels that can be very painless.

Federal reserve

The impact of tariffs and their inflation will seriously affect the Central Bank, because it will give interest rates. Evaluation data has not been a great impact on tariffs so far, and several Fed officials have been proven to substantiate the ratio of inflation.

However, the Fed President Jerome Powell and other politicians said that at least a few months of information is needed to be confident that inflation is on the right track.

The upcoming information can be reduced when the effects of inflation related to any tariff affect the inflation expectations of consumers increased inflation expectations for longer periods of inflation over a longer period.

Although Trump immediately demands the lower prices of the Fed, it can make it difficult for politicians. They may be more reluctant to prove that they are independent of political pressure. Reacement of tariffs can take a picture of inflation. The naming of the “shadow” seat could even confuse Rebellion to the Federal Open Market Committee.

Corporate gain

Beginning in July, earnings for the second quarter, Wall Street will start affecting the worldview of Fulsee, as well as a scene of tariffs and economic uncertainty.

Companies have been in a hurry to get out of the year before the tariffs, before the year, the first quarter results do not fully reflect higher rates.

However, these shareholders are running out, companies force consumers or tariff expenses and reduce the benefit of the profit.

In addition, the smaller companies Trump’s Traditional Trade War plans to invest in a fair economy and hire.

The White House will also earn the financial policy, tax reduction, the end of certain tax loans, the expenditure of certain tax credits and more to the social security network through corporate America and consumers.

Wildcard: Middle East

Israel has reduced oil prices by less disturbing the ceasefire, oil prices and sudden supply of markets between Iran and the United States.

However, Trump said that Tehran needs to be crippled in Tehran’s nuclear program, it was open to bombing Iran. These contradictory reports have revealed how much Iranian opportunities are actually damaged.

Updated battles are reduced to another increase in raw prices, spending energy and sow consumers, increase inflation and dieting growth and further difficulty.

There’s a great summer.