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I was amazed in the last few years and how to narrow the most dramatic political and economic events of the markets. There is nothing for the infringement of investors – the increase in pandems, wars, global trading systems, safe and solwing populism.
For this, many reasons were given to the promise of artificial intelligence to the so-called corporate gain, so-called Taco Trade. But I would like to offer another: The world has not only settled on a new economic narrative. Unless you do it, we are likely to extend during a bother in a market staz.
Historically, political economies are determined by large, sweeping narratives. In the seventeenth century, the mermantylism gave the 19th century to LaISsez-FaILE, which on the turn of the Ragan-Thanker Revolution and the Neoliberal period.
But today there is no narrative about what we are or next. Instead, there are many competitions around globalization, inflation, capital markets, politics and technology. All this creates a kind of rashomon effect – the same information and events can be interpreted in contradictory ways of different market participants.
For example, we know that the global trading system is in the stream. There have been less trade between geopolitical partners since 2017. Now the Great Economists, Kearney Consulting Firm, the center of attention, which is focusing on the national self, is more of the national self-integration, puts it in the center of attention.
Again, in a CEO conference that I took part in two weeks ago, he told me that all this happened in the spectrum. If you sit in the Pacific Ocean, “There is more globalization than before and even more.”
According to a recent McKinsey report Change global tradeToday’s 50 largest trading corridors, 16 percent increase in 16 percent of global tariffs and grew strong in 60 percent in the tariffs in China and Russia. These are new ways that connect the developing economy together together.
Rashomon effect also plays the company level. Which industry obviously you think. But the size is also important. Trade violation by tariffs will be another tail for large companies, because they can place more resources than smaller ones to reduce negative effects.
Several CEO and Supply Chain Specialist I recently talked, many of the pandemic supply chains optimization, many percent of the pandemic supply chain, many percent of the inflationary inflationary inflationary pressure can be buffered.
It’s not the case for other players. JPMorgan says Donald will have 3 percent of the average size of the tariffs of Trump or 3 percent of the wages, which will be withdrawn and stronger margins. Meanwhile, economists are concerned about the fact that many small enterprises will be just under.
If this happens – and the regional federal reserve officials will begin to follow – in turn, large employers have a disproportionate effect on employment and wealth in smaller cities. This will further aggravate the geographical superstar effect that works for large companies, and there are no small business owners and employees in low-populated areas.
This division is part of the fuel of the variable policy of the United States and many other countries. Currently, both the right and left populism are growing in America. Those who are under pressure in the Red-State America, the next mayor of New York, young liberals who could not rent a large Apple support for the next mayor may vote.
I suspect that this narrative will be repeated in the 2028 presidential election, if the Democrats selected an economic populist as their candidates – Kamala Harris is every reason for what centers. However, this dynamic opens the door of more uncertainty about the future of the United States.
As soon as the last Deutsche bank survey is seized, investors are divided into the future of the American exclusive or not. Despite the recent events, despite the recent events, forty-four percent in the end, as a result, no other country would be able to fight growth and fight against dynamism. However, 49 percent of America’s position in the world would slowly exceed the years. Seventy-eight percent chose to hold the euro up to the dollar next year, although the ratio was 50/50 in five years.
It is as if all this was not quite uncertain, the EU should also be taken into account. Technology will increase productivity, earnings and stock prices high? Will he place a lot of work very quickly, causing higher unemployment and more populist retreat? Or what? Which countries and companies will win? Can we also give energy and water costs?
There is no clear answer to any of these issues. At any point of the career I have not seen many potential market-moving vector as a potential market-action vector at the same time. The fact that markets still do not reflect, does not mean they will not be.
