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There are many reasons to feel confused with existing American policy. US President Donald Trump “Final” continues to give tariff threats – Then come back.
White House wants to create industrial affairs – However, the act of reducing inflation in red countries is the Bagir. Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary, wants the dollar dominance, but He headed 10 percent worth it. And so on.
But if you want to feel more confusing, see the markets. This month, the one-year ceiling market has been reduced to a modest rate from the federal reserve, which normally grow and inflation.
However, capital prices offers an improved economy: American stock exchanges are on record altitude and wall street Analysts are forecasted Gains ongoing among strong earnings forecasts. Moreover, the so-called cyclical reserves (benefit from growth) are significantly preferred, Notes torsten slow, Special capital group Apollo’s chief economist.
“It’s not consistent,” said Sløk. “The bond market is incorrect and the rates should move higher due to increased acceleration. Or capital markets are incorrect and the reserves must move down to slow down.” Too much.
Why? There are at least three possible explanations. One can be “double taco” trade (I’m applying for my colleague Robert Armstrong “Trump Always Chickens”). Rather, capital prices, the prices of tariff threats will be fatic, and the prices of a belief in bond markets will not actually do debt measures and cause investors to cause treasures.
This is not crazy. Trump has repeatedly tariffs this year, along with the dangers of the Federal Card of the Federal, Jay Powell, 899 taxes that are not American investors flee from the treasures, recently yesterday week, “Great, beautiful bill”. So this taco label.
However, there is an alternative explanation that can know the idea of ”Double Dahis”: Investors believe Trump will actually implement their plans, but they will be as bright as they give higher growth, low prices and falling debts.
More accurately, Kevin Hassett, Trump’s economic adviser Kevin Hassett insists that the BBB law will increase, increase Inflation is reduced by regulation and low energy prices. And rating agency Moody’s US credit rating 37tn (and rising) debt, bessent rejected as a “lagging indicator”by claiming that income will increase due to tariffs and growth.
Meanwhile, the 9TN planned in the next 12 months spreads recommendations to facilitate the treasury auctions of $ 9TN, as reforms to promote banks Get short-term, bonds, bonds, not short-term, more bonds and weight. (This is the irony since then Bessent’s team slowed his predecessor Janet Yellen to do it.)
Some investors accept this spin – or appear. Not surprising: Atlanta Fed’s current GDP real-time assessment is 2.6 percentAnd the tariffs have little argument that causes a great price increase – yet. And the institutions such as the World Bank They reduced global growth forecastsDue to tariffs, the Oxford Economy Group – to quote a private sector sector – this week’s “new tariff rates” think …. and 50 percent copy Levy “creates” only modest risk “.
Indeed, these measures will add a 0.08 percentage point to the main inflation next year and simply reduce the real GDP, and the second will be replaced by the BBB’s financial insistence. Thus, “The mixture of trade agreements and threatening tariffs is less than about 20 percent of the United States, about 20 percent less than 20 percent. Thus, the silence of the market.
However, the other, more cynical, this is now important for the lack of recent historical precedents for Trump, which is impossible to leave, it is now important. One problem is a great reserve collection for Dodge of US companies. Another, as “reconstruction” of companies, the supply chains of supply McKinsey report is said – and It’s easy in some sectors (like shirts) in others (like laptops and fireworks).
Similarly, despite the nutrition of Dallas notier These immigration remigration can reduce the 0.75-1 percent this year, it is not clear. Thus, the proposed spending cuts of Trump (in 2026 after the next part of the next partner) or adapt to the adaptation of the investment provocation of wild policy or adapt to this uncertainty (as a result.
When American companies report on earnings next week, maybe more clarity. Or perhaps bonds or capital markets will be adjusted. But they symbolize the confusion until then. Think about it when I look at your next portfolio.
