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How often does the market cut this year?


Federal reserve Politicians meet this week and announce the decisions on interest rates on Wednesday, probably the rest of 2025, the rest of 2025 means how to change the results.

Consumer prices are stubborn in February, 2.8%, 2.8%, Fedin target is threatening to maintain 2%, prices. Although the labor market remains relatively stable, a triggering economic slowdown can cause this by trade war or other shocks.

Fed President Jerome Powell, after the last policy meeting of the Central Bank, do not rush to cut interest rates in late January, politicians said to follow inflation and for the potential risks to both sides of a double mandate to facilitate labor market information, fixed prices and maximum employment. Fed after the 50 main points in September, before changing the ratios in January, and after 25 key point crossings in December.

Despite the degree of economic uncertainty, Fed’s expected actions will be particularly careful for the expected actions, Fed Watchers, Fed Watchers, the central bank interest rates and the time of the next cut.

Inflation in February in front of the Federal Reserve Meeting slowed up to 2.8%

Fed President Jerome Powell holds a press conference

Politicians led by the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will announce the interest of the Fed for March Wednesday. (Getty Images / Photo by Liu Jie / Sinhua via Getty Images

Sunday sees a 99% probability for Fedin Benchmark The Federal Funds According to the CME Fedwatch, after the March meeting of the March 4.25%, it will not change in the range of 4.25%.

Looking upon the market, the market, which is likely to reduce the funds, which is likely to reduce in the market in May for a while, has not changed in the possibility of reduction in the possibility of increasing the instrument by 25.5% to 25.5%. In this size, a second incision has the highest probability in September.

At the end of 2025, the CME Fedwatch tool reduces 32.2% to 32.2% of 32.2% to 4% this year; Up to 3.75% against a third chance of 3.5% to 3.5% to 3.75% against 3.5%; And this year is only a 17.8% chance of a proportion.

Consumer confidence in February with the largest monthly discount for about 4 years

Federal reserve

The federal reserve is projected to reduce interest rates two to three times this year due to the CME Fedwatch tool. ((Kevin Dietsch / Getty Images) / by Getty Images)

They offered various views on the expectations for analysts and economists Fed’s degree cutting plans.

Comerica Bank’s Chief Economist Bill Adams is difficult to know how the Fed will react to the current situation. All in 2025. “

“The last approach of Comerica sees the last approach to 3 percent in 2025, in July,” he said in a more aggressive pace to December three-thirds by three thirds by three thirds, “Fed, the latest policy turns and more information on how the final policy affects will be held in March because they are waiting. “

Fed Officials The flags of inflation increased inflation, trump policy, uncertainty on tariffs

Grocery store

Inflation pressures are stubborn, stubborn, which is on the target of 2% of nutrition. (Spencer Platt / Getty Images / Getty Images)

Goldman Sachs, economists led by Jean Hatzius, wrote in spite of the changes economic forecast Due to the uncertainty of trade policy, this year “This year” has not changed in two incisions this year, and in 2026 to 3.5% -3.75% of a terminal in 2026 “left our non-fed forecast.”

“This year, then we see two possible ways to reduce the interest rate. “Second, the second, more suitable road that proves our tariff assumptions means 2019 stigly ‘insurance cuts to protect the economy from the economy.”

They added that “for insurance cut” inflation is higher, inflation higher and some survey measures of inflation expectations, especially the Michigan series, rose sharply. “This is significantly serious because the increase risks created by larger and wider tariffs are in 2019.”

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The main active leadership is a global strategist, the main global strategist, we expect two or three ratios to inflation that said they expect only two or three proportions of inconsistencies, but more importantly laboratory The deterioration of the Fed probably prioritizes the full employment of the binary mandate – a more aggressive teason tag. “

O Chief Economist Gregory Daco, EY’s “expected approach in the coming months and wait for only two nutritional proportions in 2025 in June and December.”

“If the dominant policy is deteriorating and increases market volatility, it can cause a bad opinion to the economy, and some politicians can help some politicians to think more simplify money policy,” Daco. “However, we suspect that many fed officials will take a restrictive position to prevent inflation, especially if the expectations of inflation increases.”



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