(Bloomberg) – Eddie Arthur in West Africa’s Cocoa Heartland, watching the farm every day, he had a quarter of a century to take to the farm on the farm and count several pods.
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Whenever every standing, a handful of wood, finally, can be turned into ball-sized pods and watches from a handful of wood, which can be used to dry or aging. Regardless of air or road conditions, this is repeated on about 20 farms a day to collect information that helps predict the total product size.
Work has been barely changed for decades. However, the meters like Arthur’s Arthur in Forestero became more important than ever, because traders, hedges and chocoliers are trying to measure production in a market with an unprecedented shortcoming.
“You have a better idea of how the season on the farm,” Artur said, “Artur said the Ivory Coast in Gagnoa, the pods ahead of this year’s average product. “It has been a part of my hobby for many years. But I take the same seriousness and carefulness to every trip.”
After the top growers of the bad weather, the ivory shore and the futures hit a record after damaging the crops in Ghana. The violence of the rally was even surprised by experienced market players, caused chaos along the global supply chain of Cocoa and gave a reminder on how sensitive supply of sensitive supply with climate change.
It calls on people to ask people to pay more attention to people in an area where the supply data is relatively scarce.
“The pod counts have more than 50 years, but some have chosen to ignore the information,” said the pods also investigated the workers on tropical research services. “People agreed with low prices. Now there is more interest in the last 18 months after people happen.”
For other large products such as wheat or sugar, it is more difficult to get an idea of the supply image in the non-transparent cocoa industry. This is due to a smaller amount of dominant players, because of the industrial Ivory Coast and Ghana governments – rarely publish the supply figures.
Therefore, the pod meters can offer valuable ideas.
During the year, the Ivory Coast and Ghana look at farms with a small team. They count pods in the selected trees, and return again and again how all the plantings change. They also pay attention to issues such as pest infestations.
The information is recorded in a tablet and is obtained by the Swiss Lozanne office for the analysis of customers, including chocolate firms, processors, traders, merchants, shippers, merchants, shippers and hedge funds.
The number plays an important role in evaluating global supply and spreading agricultural diseases and becomes a more reliable indicator a few months before harvest. Visits show how many trees that are seasonal, such as the dusty harmattan winds and swamp periods starting in November.
“The roads in the rainy season are bad, but it is my favorite time,” Arthur said earlier this month. “Trees are revived again and enjoy being on farms.”
Forestero and tropical research services are among the count of a handful of independent pod. Many large traders and processors have their own internal counters, although they carefully protect the information.
According to the Forestero founder Fabrica Laurent, chocolate companies and funds, foresto founder Fabrice Laurent, according to the pod count data, among the new interests.
How big money, which can earn great money with capitalization in rapid price shifts, are trying to get an edge in the goods and air markets. When talking about the cocoa market in December, the hedge fund manager pierre abstoods pod meters.
Earning a preference over other traders can be especially lucrative in a market such as Cocoa, which saw great price swings. Last year, almost disappearing New York futures, although it is historically expensive, decreases about 38% from the summit of December.
Although the Tallying Device allows the data to the tablets that load the data in the cloud, the technology cannot easily replace the surface part of the pod number. To use drones, the use of drones still needs someone, and some companies have tried to apply satellite images, but it is difficult to separate plantings from other woods.
“The pod count is the same as you are equally measured by your productivity of the same methodology 20 years ago,” Lurent said. “What has changed, in what way, the type of analysis you can do, the type of calculation and learning machine system you use.”
A change over the years follows product disease. Tropical research services, almost two decades ago, in the first place, in the first place, and now pod meters use the disease detection to map the problem.
Plants are also mercy on more extreme weather conditions after climate change. This may be important in detecting the means that the prospects for the investigation of the products do not quickly glide.
“We know that global warming also plays a major role in unprecedented weather events, which has a great impact on cocoa production.”
– Help Fraidoon Poya.
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