Record Gold prices According to an analyst, you can see a steep correction in the coming years.
There are long-term trends that can fall bullion Back to $ 1,820, says Morningstar’s Jon Mills.
This means a 38% decrease for metal from current levels.
Gold, as a refuge in the policy chaos, became a surprise winner of Trump trading gold, but there are long-term trends threatening by dragging down the metal.
Jon Mills is an analytical of Morningstar, especially with a forecast Gold prices. Although the rest of the Wall Street puts higher predictions for ingots, this week, a new record-elevation gold can reach $ 1,820 in the next five years.
This is a reduction of a 38% of the record, wipe the earnings for more than $ 3,000 and in the last 12 months.
Gold prices were sold around $ 3,080 on Friday, a fresh ounce of $ 3,080 is always high.
Prices for yellow metal this year geopolitical uncertainty, expecting a more difficult worldview and higher inflation for the US economy, which showed interest in safe shelter assets.
The concern in the markets, Trump’in active in the opening months of the golden stand.
But mills believe that in the coming years, more secular pressures will take on gold. Three reasons who saw that he looked at the glance, he saw that it would be lower in the long run.
High gold prices encouraged manufacturers to maintain more gold, but in recent years, higher supplies will put low prices in the coming years.
According to the World Gold Council, gold cultural has become increasingly profitable in recent years. The average profit margin for gold miners Since 2012, the most profitable mining period is like $ 950 in the second quarter of 2024.
The average manufacturer’s profit margin was $ 950 for an ounce gold in the second quarter of 2024.Bloomberg / Metals Focus / World Gold Council
According to the group’s analysis, the above gold reserves are 216,265 tons in 2024 and 9% in five years.
Mills added that more gold will be re-processed in the years that will increase the supply.
“Every man and dogs trying to open the golden cultural, because he became profitable, especially pointed to Australia as one of the largest gold producers in the world. “I think that this justifies the supply growth.
Central banks and investors are more interested in the diversification of diversification this year and as a way to shelter the macro uncertainty.
Global Central Banks received 9045 tons of gold from 2024 to 2024, from 1,000 tons.
Central banks received more than 1,000 spotted gold gold for the third straight year in 2024.Metals Focus / Refinitives GFMS / World Gold Council
Meanwhile, gold funds on the investor are the most popular for years. In February, the regional gold ETFs reached $ 9.4 billion, the highest flow in about three years, the World Gold Council shows the information.
However, there are signs that the whole appetite for the world has begun. In a study conducted by the WGC, 71% of central banks, said they expect their gold holdings to be the same or reduced in 12 months in the future.
68% of central banks said they expect gold reserves to remain the same for the next year, while 3% expect gold reserves to be reduced.World Gold Council
Investor appetite, mills, mills, concerns about the economy are usually short-term factors affecting gold prices, he said. When the pandemic approaches its unique concern about the economy, in 2020, gold pointed to a short price spike. After that, the prices fell quickly and did not climb to previous peaks by the end of 2023.
“All this throat tails should not re-project all this throat tails.” “If you look at the gold price for the last 25, 30 years, you can see a lot of passes, and then went back a little.”
“I’m not very sure that this positive requirements are now in the demand,” he said now. “
The activity in the gold industry is historically followed by a reprimanded sample, historically approaches the price, mills.
One, the M & A activity tends to be a situation in the summer of the market. Deal in the Gold Industry in 2024, according to S & P Global Market intelligence, more than 32% in 2024.
Last year, the transaction in the gold industry increased by 32%.S & P Global Market Zaka
There are also recently the spread of gold-based funds, which has previously made mills.
“The long story is short, there are all this pushing the price of gold,” Mills said. “I think you have to be careful not to project current spot prices for eternity or for a long time.”
Many Wall Street forecasts await waiting for gold prices to climb in the near future. This week, the American bank raised its gold forecast for $ 3,500 in the next two years, and investing in metal increases by 10%. Goldman Sachs also increased the forecast to the end of the year, forecasting that gold could rise to $ 3,300.
