Trump tariffs may rise to the highest level since 1872 – before revenge and the escalation period becomes easier

• Tariffs of President Donald Trump According to analysts, it can recently achieve an effective degree of recently to about 25% effectively under the recently announced plans. A steep rate is the highest level for more than 150 years. But after the period of revenge and aggravation, UBS sees the tariffs returning at the end of this year.

President Donald Trump’s “Freedom Day” tariffs sends ratios to steep levels in a century, but can go to higher.

According to a Note from UBS analysts On Friday, the latest Salvou of import taxes will send up to 2.5% to 25%, 2024 elections. But there is not likely to stop there.

“We believe that the EU and China are likely to be revenge, and the probability of the” mutual “approach to us must be welcomed by US tariffs for trade partners to retaliate.”

In addition, some imports of imports that have not targeted last week may be subject to future investigations and lose their freedoms.

On Wednesday, Trump will exceed 54% of the total ratio and added 34% Levy to hit the European Union with a 20% fee. China has already retaliated with its own 34% tariff and said the EU planned to respond.

UBS, which is effective, expects the US Tariff Rate to the summit in the range of 25% -30%. According to the information Fitch ratingsThe 25% effective tariff rate would be the highest since 1909.

If it reached 30%, it has been the highest since 1872 – Civil War Hero Ulysses S. Grant, the US economy was still in the first stages of the Industrial Revolution.

However, in the third quarter, UBS tariffs are waiting for the effective speed of 2025 to the end of 2025 at 10% -15%.

“Different countries have said that they could not intend to retaliate and start reducing the total effective tariff rate of transactions with individual countries,” said analysts.

In fact, Vietnam has confirmed this weekend It was suggested to delete all tariffs on US importsand Trump management officials said on Sunday More than 50 countries reached the White House for tariff talks.

Trump will also encounter more pressure to negotiate, UBS is forecasted, potential problems for the legal basis for the extent of its tariffs and policies to abuse or exceptions;

As the interim election season is approaching, political calculations are also soften the position of Trump. Republican Senate Ted Cruz, when tariffs caused the recession, a political “blood roof” in 2026.

The UBS sees less than 1% in US GDP in 2025, including a year of recession in order to highlight GDP’s decline. Shares will return, but analysts cut the S & P 500 targets from 6,400 to 5,800 S & P 500 Target.

“We believe that ramps that allow you to declare victory on all sides, measures or measures are taken to prevent reducing the existing tariffs in Asia in Asia, existing tariffs or tariff barriers,” UBS.

This story was first displayed Fortune.com

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