The end of the hopeful tariff is not so hopeful

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Your guide to Washington and the world for the 2024 election of the United States

The writer is a professor of a professor of Harvard University and the former department of the White House Council

Tariff makes tours in Wall Street and Washington, a hopeful end for Fiasco. Donald Trump reduces rapid deals with countries around the world, announces victory and reduces “mutual” tariffs or sharply, other-like-the-the -ized-the-the -ized-the-the -ized-the-the-the-the-the-the-the-the-the-the-the-the-the-the-the-the-the-the-achini-the-the-the-the-achini-the-the-achieve leaves something. Hope will gladly delight the confidence in the markets, and everyone will return to the futures planning and everyone will turn their attention to another place. This settlement will be considered as a victory, how much the Overton window and how quickly or how quickly, the policy of politics, which is assessed as soon as possible, has passed the US and Venezuela.

Imagine all this has started in 2024 by 2.5 percent, and revise by tariffs in the first term and start by the tariffs that Biden are added. Most analysts – I thought that I entered myself – once the market pressure returned to the scalability once again. Investment banks are twisted around the scenarios such as an increase in the growth of 5 percent in the average tariff rate.

Now the world’s highest tariff country in the world – Leapfrogging peakers such as Iran and Venezuela, the 24 percent tariff rate to make leapfrogging picers, respectively 12 and 14 percent. In fact, a country with a population of a population of more than 1 million is high in the United States, which is the highest rate in one quarter in one quarter.

Moreover, in Canada and Mexico, in full tariffs and pharmaceuticals, in response to the promised tariffs or other sectors, or the United States can be higher.

It is more likely that this is the hot stove that will pull this Trump hand. In the past, he was able to do something big from the small concessions, and he could end this here.

Currently, how to discuss deals with 60 different economies that meet “mutual” tariffs, the-the-the-the-the-the-the -ized-the-the-the-the-the-the-the-the-the-the-the-the-achieved, but let’s assume it pulls it. Although something is possible, it is likely that the landing place is that it will protect the center of the center, which is campaigned and to maintain a higher tariff in some countries. The result would be 12-15 percent of the United States would have the average tariff speed. It is very low today – but still very high, inevitably bad results.

The market will breathe with a feeling of comfort, which is lower than the rates, but this level will still result in significant reduction in import and export. Americans have died of higher prices, poor quality and higher quality and higher quality and higher exports in the export industry, which is more of the export and service work.

Moreover, the tariffs on this level would even guarantee the uncertainty of the extremely high trade policy for at least the next four years. When enterprises do not make sure that the future policy will be, it can pay to wait until this solution is resolved before making decisions. The result is less investment and lower growth.

Uncertainty is often probably not likely to work in a probable way, that is, the chance of something bad. Instead, in the future results reflect variability – the tariff reduction or tariff increase. In the last 50 years, the average tariff rate did not result in more than 1 percent in any year. In most years, they have not changed more than tenth or two (other trade restrictions, which are changing over time, have not been caught in this measure as quotas). Starting from the US average tariff rate, 12 percent, less incorrect and more predicted president, the enterprises, which are very long, will have a scenario plan around the capabilities.

Unfortunately there is no real way. Although Trump has fallen below the most extreme offer, it will be able to change the dispute in terms of tariffs and uncertainty, which can behave as a tariff. The bad demons will be difficult to put in their glass. The best choice can be predicted to redeem the power of the congress to set the tariffs.