Donald Trump added a political risk prize to US assets

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This week, in the opinion of Stephen Miller, we have witnessed the “largest economic strategy of the American president” with the Consultant Donald Trump.

The most part of the US president’s turn Aggressive trading tariffs “It was executed in a bright way,” the billionaire was Ackman Ackman. “Textbook, the art of deal.”

There is a memo because someone should tell investors about this amazing act of this amazing behavior. The US shares played one of the greatest jumps from a record to the top of the record, the US shares shouted higher. However, the next day was not pretty for the Maga team: a higher broom in the markets from Asia to Europe, but a large drop in the United States. This US $The US shares further increased after the president’s shares were reduced after Trump’s mini crisis, unable to take a step after the president’s tariffs.

The extreme interpretation of short-term movements is a risk here. However, this offers some difficult truths for the US leadership: stock investors would like to work elsewhere and the country’s main financial assets – treasures and dollars glitter the global hegemon dominance. Trust is gone or at least significantly weakened and it is difficult to see if Trump can bring it back when the white house or even outside.

Markets are on a screen on a screen, on the spreadsheet and numbers, but they are also managed by neboulous things like vibes and reputation. For the United States, rest in the features of investors that previously seriously questioned: the rule of law, sensitive policies and healthy independent organizations. Trump questioned all this.

Other small countries and markets can share tendent classes to recognize this. British markets still walk in egg shells for more than two years. Each time the new business labor opens the mouth of Rachel Reeves, the owners of government bonds in the UK are afraid of a Rerun fear. The market was injured. Japan is still working hard to trust the stock market after global asset managers in the exchange market. Investors are still afraid of fake dawn.

You need time to dismantle positive or negative stereotypes without the main shock. This is a great shock trump in the United States. For investors all over the world, US shares and bonds have “home” for years. US assets are the largest investor portfolio compared to 60 percent of global stock indices, 60 percent of global stock indices or 70 percent of developed markets. Its government bonds make up the field of financial system.

For decades, there was a parking lot, a neutral choice in the United States. Something else requires more brain power, more analysis, more justification. This is broken down. US treasures, without a trip, are a soft adventurous UK Gilts. Some even compare them with market bonds that emerge: US “EM-iFiating” This week is a great topic of market circles this week.

Politics, trade and markets are also not useful for the United States. China’s crushing trade should be crushed by China’s debris. Does Trump really want to see what will happen if this requirement evaporates? China has developed a fixation that China can sell dollar holdings at this point. This is not a correct question. The point is that at least not at least a typical pace, but not to collect more. The effect is still potentially borrowed for gift income.

Optimistic case, we started from the summit. Markets came to a final to a finals of the Tariffs this week’s tariffs this week, and perhaps some adults in the room can direct the future economic policy in less faculty.

However, once the former Polish leader Lech Wałęsa, you can’t turn a fish soup to a aquarium. It’s hard to see a way for normal.

By putting the china, the trump fell down. So what is it to stop it again? What is to stop the success of a Rerun test? Long-term investors are in no mood to do so up to four to eight years.

Thus, a risk reward will seat on US assets not previously. Trump Premium if you want.

When the recovery begins or at least, you will not always work on the date – do not expect the United States to dominate the way. The shares have a political risk for the first time. The bonds are no longer acting as they are risky. The dollar does not move like a magnet during the stress or does not act as an expected currency in American economic growth.

Unlike this darkness, Europe is like an investment job as it is two weeks ago. It is serious to increase the perception of Euro as a reserve currency and deepens the internal financial integration. Does it already move adjustable and slow? Be sure. But does the historical geopolitical unions explode and play chicken with global trade? Yn

Whatever happens, the United States will carry a wound on the ongoing sanctions.

katie.martin@ft.com