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The vital melt of the US capital and bond markets make the financial circles. However, shares and treasures fall in Fritz-US dollars, analysts, with the warning of analysts in response to the angry foreign policy decisions of the Trump Administration.
“We are witnessing the price of all US assets between all US assets, alternative reserve (foreign currency) and the bond market,” George Saravelos, Global Head of FX Research George Saravelos German bankthis week in a note. “We are entering the global financial system (ed).”
As the tanks and bonds of markets increased, the dollar is a three-year low this week. In a more typical environment, the markets “collect” dollars would be like a safe shelter from other noise, Saravelos and dollars will strengthen. But which Trump in global markets is typical. Now other countries lose their faith in the United States and actively sell US assets, and perhaps the dollar global reserve status.
This is the problem for subsidizing the exclusive of US dollars by other countries. Foreigners invest in about 2 trillion dollars in the United States each year. Both physical and government, foreign investors, There are 30% of US debt. Not seeing those who see their headlines, because at least, because at least, the National Debt can cause debt expenses for the United States.
If the US government is determined to keep the dollar reserve status, analysts would be less concerned than the final variation. However, Chairman of the White House Council Stephen Miran, a speech that said the US dollar was primitive this week “Baha,” The lawsuit makes it impossible to work and products.
So where do these investors leave? Some are looking for confidence assets like goldGerman groups, Swiss francs and Japanese yen, Gary Schlossberg, Global Strategy Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
However, it is not time to refuse all the confidence in the US dollar, says the market collapse is not inevitable. The current erosion can still be reverse. Although there is significant damage over the past few months, the columns of the US exclusive still exist: The US market is still deeper, more liquid, more effective and more efficient. Although some of them placed the euro as a possible alternative, Europe has been fragmented than the United States and faces the risks of fragmentation.
“Of course, there is a retreat from the United States,” Schlossberg said that this was reflected in the markets of deep concern in the markets. But the dollar will remain in the center of the dollar. There are very few alternatives. “
This noted that Schlossberg and other analysts differ significantly from the previous blows of the current market environment. Carry 2011 credit discount US treasury debt. At that time, investors looked at this and still prevented the dollar a stable safe shelter, preventing a roll of the market. During the 2008 financial crisis, governments met the ship.
However, the Trump Administration is a different animal from tariff policies and other countries, and threatens the rules agreed for decades and the role of the United States world leader. The leaders are likely to be longer.
“You are mainly from the global economy of the United States,” Schlossberg says, “You do not want to express ourselves in the threshold of trade and payment system returning to World War II, but it simply creates uncertainty.”
Creating further uncertainty is how much the liquid trump policy is. During several weeks, tariffs have changed and changed them many times, although there are about 10% tariffs in most countries, and 145% tariffs are currently in place. All this was not legitimate by the executive procedure and by Congress, Although the tariffs are his Purview-Ons can be easily canceled or altered because the Trump itself is done. All this, if all policies are changed, it will be difficult to absorb the trust in the United States. The great winners of all this are the euro and the new ones, analysts say.
Schlossberg says Jittery investors talk to their feelings with a financial advisor and let them see how their market environment changes. But so far, at least, The grounds remain: Diversify your holdings to include both the United States and the International Exposure, Think gold as Safe Sahaveand Consider your cash up Separation for time. Apple “too in your skis” trying to find alternatives in a fast-changing environment.
“You can opt out, which is also the past, rogues, the turbulence created tomorrow. Sabah is not Armagedon,” Schlossberg said. “I want to say that this may be inverted on Monday.”
This story was first displayed Fortune.com