Can an earthquake change the balance in the civil war of Myannah? | Military News

Bangkok, Thailand – Myanmar continues to shape thousands of people in March 7.7 magnitude earthquake in the balance, a larger disaster, the future of the nation – this is made by a person.

Myanmar was caught by the Civil War and found himself in a military regime after a four-year battle are increasingly covered.

However, the impact of the earthquake can soon prove that the conflict is decisive.

Surprising in the Central Sagaing area of ​​Myanmar on March 28 The quake caused the death of at least 3649 peopleAccording to the figures of the military, more than 5,000 injured and 145 people were missing.

Seismic shock brought houses, factories, Buddhist pagods, housing blocks and bridges and collapsed the ways of Sagaing City and nearby Mandalay.

During the military, the electricity suspended electricity supplies to the producing ammunition factories, said, Tin Lin Aung, former major against the resistance movement against the resistance movement in 2022.

A clear sign of military equipment stretched this year, this year, recently detained bullets and artillery boxes, tin Lin Aung, which was recently detained from the production history.

“When I was in the military, we were joking that some bullets were older than us,” he said.

“Now they are used immediately,” he said.

Notice of ordnance to the production of ammunition, the regions of the armies in Myanmar are covered by almost all sorts of armed opposition for the long time and more.

Nevertheless, it keeps a railroad in the major cities of the country and the main critical infrastructure.

Entering the city’s castles, the armies tried to cancel the loss of uncertain air strikes and burning villages with burning villages – the United Nations covers war crimes.

‘More loneliness than the military’

Sagaing City was devastated by the earthquake and remains under military control, many of the surrounding villages are regulated by resistance militia as the People’s Defense Forces (PDF), coordinated by the Government of the National Union (NUG).

Nag, up to 20 April, except for “defense operations”, announced a reconciliation in the areas affected by the earthquake. Operations continued.

According to Nuh, the number of Cyprus and artillery attacks on March 28, at least 72 civilians between April 8, a 13-year-old girl, including two more civilians, died of bombing military aircraft in April 10.

A sagaing-based PDF fighter that requires an anonymity, despite the benefit of some rebel departments, military enemies in the battle, said the relief efforts of Myanmar’s center.

“Since the earthquake, he used military Sagaing-Monthwa,” he said. However, PDF forces in Sagaing are waiting to fight to intensify after the end of April.

“PDF has more speed than servicemen here.”

“There will be more struggle in the coming months,” said Sagaing PDF Battalion 3 in Ko Ko Gyi.

Regional security analyst Anthony Davis said that they doubt that the earthquake will distract the military’s strategic goals, and most soldiers remain in their bitch thanks to relief efforts.

“The military does not take time to save people. They will continue their weather and start handing the soil to weaken the PDF,” Davis said.

However, Western Rakhine is the state – the earthquake is large – this is the most resulting battlefield.

There, Rebel Arakan Arakan (AA), along with Capital Capital Capital Sittwe and Kyaukphyu, collided with a military forces around the main pipeline transporting gas from Myanmar.

AA also said that in the center of the country in the western house and in the center of the central hearts of Myanmar, Bago and Ayeyarwady districts.

“These are a swing player who can significantly move this conflict in one way or another,” he said.

Ana, who ordered about 40,000 soldiers, has a proven record to defeat the forces of the military.

In the eastern state of myanmine’s Kayah, the leading commander of the major resistance, the earthquake stressed the suffering of IDP communities carrying the best of the continued wars.

“The party wishing to take care of people can see the public opinion and can succeed in future battles,” he said.

In the north and northwest, the army is in the back leg.

Although the Kachin’s Independence Army announces his ANBAKE, despite the eight-month siege, April 7 seized the city of Enaw in the North Sagaing region. Jaw Resistance Forces recently won control Falam Township Myanmar – even if they do not declare any ceasefire.

Political analyst Kyaw HSAN HSAN HSAN, after the military forces, said they could open openings for the seizure of the city after the earthquake and others.

“However, any gain will be important in areas such as the growing management and adaptation of the military, especially in Garden and Magwe,” he said.

“In the long run, the earthquake is not possible to overcome the balance of power in Myanmar,” he said.

‘Divine Intervention’

Although the earthquake did not hit the military rule, the earthquake conveyed the mental Shock to the generals of the regime.

In a country where astology and the highest political decisions of the superstition are a guide, many interpret the natural disaster as a space rebuke against Myanmar’s military leadership.

“They see this earthquake as divine intervention – they are punished for the king’s mistakes.

According to Tin Lin Aung, the regime ordered the country’s officials to read a Buddhist of nine times in a row for nine days in a row. Nine of nine have good symbolism in the Buddhist tradition.

He described the regime’s reaction to the earthquake, international assistance and assistance, while continuing their attacks, and applied for international assistance and assistance.

“They know that people hate them more and more and lose the leader,” he said.

Myanmar Adviser in the International Crisis Group Myanmar Adviser Richard Horsey, Commander-in-Chief of the Commander-in-Chief of Myanmar Army Mins Aung Hlaing rejected this supernatural interpretation, and its inner circle is severely sensitive. Instead of causing an internal coup, more than a bad omen, more than a thousand Aung Hlaing powers will signal the erosion and open criticism.

“You felt that they ignore their orders from there and did not see their work, because not everyone agrees with them,” he said.

Political analyst Kyaw HSAN HSAN HSAN HsAN HSAN, as a sign of some sources for military rule, the earthquake beliefs can be used to push the narrative in the need to “move to control.”

Lurafat is one of many factors that form the military in the conflict.

The quake also said, “Myanmar has suffered great damage to the corner piece.”

Considering the scale of the earthquake, it is likely that if the civil war affects – “but in difficult ways to predict.”

Along with the attacks on an ineffective and uninterrupted response to the victims of the earthquake, along with the ongoing attacks in the national emergency, the military fell in the eyes of people and enemies.

Strong ethnic groups involved in the conflict will probably be more reluctant to negotiate with the military and peace after the earthquake.

“Although you can gain a compromised soul, you will believe in any peace treaty or a ceasefire document, which is not available.

“The piece of paper believed,” Horsey, when he was signed up by a military and a military considered so incompetent, “he said.