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Federal Reserve President Jerome Powell, President Trump’s tariffs are larger than expected and increased the risks of inflation, he said.
President Donald Trumps Tariffs are expected to increase by the end of this year, although the mass floor is not expected due to a new analysis.
Allianz Economists, in a report broadcast on Thursday, the labor market in the United States remains stable, and the sustainability in the first half of this year has noted the indicators.
“The job vacancy rate will be the first of a recession signal (expected in Q2-Q3), but we do not expect big breasts,” he said. “The US economy is facing a unique combination of restrictions and increasingly effective guarantee restrictions. Hence, the more companies in the previous episodes of the shortcomings prevent the increase in unemployment.”
“Despite the impact of steep inflation Tariff rides And continuously, we do not expect high policy uncertainty, US companies still enjoy a healthy profit and also have great work. However, we expect to increase by 5% to 5% of the unemployment rate, “Allian economists wrote.
Fed in New York for the highest level of unemployment in the Fed survey since 2020
President Donald Trump’s tariffs are expected to increase inflation this year this year. (Anna MoneyMaker / Getty Images / Getty Images)
This Unemployment rate was 4.2% In March, which is the most recent month of the last month of the Labor Department, so Allianz analysis can see the unemployment rate in the first quarter of 2025 in the remaining 2025.
Trump management efforts, with government efficiency (Douse) Reducing the size of the federal workforce continues, as the agencies continue to work and continue to extend their proposals to workers. The trial was made allegations against some internal movements that strive to burn federal workers.
Allianz does not expect to be anything important Unemployment rate Due to the reduction of labor force in federal government agencies.
How can Trump tariffs affect the labor market
Trump’s “mutual” tariffs increased import taxes to trade partners based in these countries with these countries. (Andrew Harnik / Getty Images / Getty Images)
“Managed by the DoGe Federal Layoffs There is no possibility of shaking the labor market, “Economists were told.” Like the teaching and USAID department, the withdrawal of employees who are not tested in agencies will begin to show in the coming months. “
“In October alone, we probably expect the impact of the federal employee in which this year’s postponed federal employees, more than 200,000 federal employment this year.
Analysis, the course of the year with the labor market and a gradual weakening of a “Tariff inflation spike In the summer months, “the federal reserve will move forward in late 2025 and in early 2026 to move the dual mandate with interest rates to support full employment.
Evaluation fears, tariff uncertainty immerse to consumer sentiment
Trump tariffs asked for high levels of variability in the financial markets. (Reuters / Reuters)
Allianz economists, after the announcement of Trump’s “Freedom Day” tariffs, investors first transferred to traditional secure insurance assets US Treasures and dollars. However, the scale of “mutual” tariffs became clear, the expected inflation and suspension reserves expected to be higher in inflation, and the expected nutrition rates prevented from a safe place.
“Markets quickly managed the re-evaluation and productivity of future money policy, especially in the long end of the curve,” he said. “However, more structures and perhaps more explanatory explains: US Treasury and a wave of global separation in the United States.”
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“This is supported as a result of increasing US product The weakening of the dollar. Orily, the higher alliliz explained economists. “Explained that the opposite happened.
