President Donald Trump He has high desires for its tariffs, so far can be replaced by tax growth tax.
“There is a real chance” Fox Noticias told On April 15th. “There is a chance to replace the money from the tariffs (income tax).”
The idea may sound attractive, but today economists speaking to the United States, Trump’s tariffs will struggle to collect enough money to completely eliminate income tax.
“Full replacement is completely, mechanical as possible. Mathematics is just not working,” he said Erica YorkVice-president of the federal tax policy in the tax foundation, a central center of thinking.
Estimates how much these tariffs will change. Trump’s great adviser Peter Navarro for trade and production, said they could bring up 6 trillion dollars in the next 10 yearsor about $ 600 billion a year. Yale Budget Laboratory, about half of the tariffs, about half of the tariffs, he said $ 2.4 trillion over the next ten years.
In both cases, these figures are pale in comparison More than $ 2 trillion The Congress collected from a tax rate in the budget room every year.
Economists said that a problem is a smaller money pool of tariffs. American taxpayers reported about $ 15 trillion According to domestic income service, the total income adjusted in 2022. Meanwhile, the United States grossly imported 3 trillion dollars that year worth of goods.
“If you tariff everything from anywhere, you intend to earn income” Keith maskColorado Boulder University is a professor of the economy and an international trade analysis specialist. “But the scale of this is not big enough.”
The adrone view, Hong Kong, China, 16 April 2025 shows a cargo ship in Kwai Tsing Container terminals.
Although Trump is further ripping tariffs, math is “not possible” Ernie TedeschiHead of Economy in Yale Budget Laboratory.
Is a tariff a tax applied to goods imported from another country. Although Trump’s Foreign countries billImporters are often US companies – paying these taxes. The higher the tariff is more likely to try to reduce the import of companies. Although the Trump has increased its plan for production in the United States, the federal income would damage.
“You end with this mathematical problem, how much do you increase the tax base, how much you increase the tariff rate,” he said Kimberly claisingPeterson is a great friend of non-resident in the Institute of Economics, an unnecessary center of thinking.
Complications from trade partners from commercial war, such as retaliation tariffs and The risks of a recession increasedAccording to Maskus, by reducing other sources of income, reduced other sources of income.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
Between 1870 and 1913 – year federal income tax has become a law – the share of tariff income is leash between 40% and 60% as the share of total receipts. 2024 analysis White House by the Council of Economic Advisers.
Trump said that this period of American history said that our focus was noticias, “This was relatively rich in our nation. We were the richest.”
It is not clear that Trump’s richest. Although the faster economic growth at a gentle age, GDP percap Today is higher.
Economists also note that the country has been very different in 19th Century, social security allowances, no medications and a smaller military force.
“The more than they expect from their government and more than 150 years ago,” said Tedeschi.
Trading Secretary Howard Lutnick CBS told the news In March, this Trump’s tariff goal “No one in $ 150,000 a year.”
Although the population’s segment cannot appeal to the less and average Americans of this segment, York warned that York is “bad trade”.
Federal income taxes are progressive, which means higher income taxpayers pay a higher price. According to him, only 12% of households are paid in 2023 federal income tax estimated Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. Most are more money Returned tax credits more than they pay in income tax.
Meanwhile, a Yale Budget Laboratory Report proposes tariffs Click on low-income households They pay a larger share of revenues because they are especially tough.
“If you get rid of income tax for low-income people, you probably get rid of these refundable tax credits and you have to pay the tariffs instead,” York said. “You would do a lot more worse than you are now.”
Peteron Institute of International Economics calculated the tariffs where the most tariffs can be Replace 40% Income tax revenues, however, will even require high tariffs for the probability that can reclaim the recession according to error.
I think we watched a part of the Tariff Income Backward Terms Planned tax reduction2017 is an extension of tax discounts and workplaces and new tax discounts, for example Tax on tipsBenefits of working hours or social security.
Trump’s tax priorities The value is estimated Nonfartisan Finance Group, according to a responsible federal budget committee, between $ 5 trillion and $ 11.2 trillion over the next ten years, $ 11.2 trillion.
Another opinion floating by deputions is replaced by more consumer taxes in goods and services.
In 2023, a group of houses tried to take a measure that will eliminate most federal taxes with national sales tax, consumer tax form. Size has never voted in the full house or in the Senate Reported by the US today.
Project 2025A conservative policy plan also helps consumption taxes.
The ambuals say that the transition tax will end the tax bias against taxes, savings and investment, critics say these taxes will be able to be regressive and harming low-profit households.
“Economists say more effective and more effective because you have gained more effective,” York said. But you need to design it in a way that protects it down and medium-income taxpayers. This can be done through things like great freedom or concession. “
