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Trump’s second term Washington, your guide for what tools for business and world
In the last two decades, the world economy was impressed by another shock: the financial crisis; First Terman Trade War of Donald Trump; pandemic; Pandemic inflation; Russia’s occupation to Ukraine; War in the Middle East; Trump II’s “World Economic-Extraordinary” Trade War, the trade war, which brings the average of the United States for more than a century for more than a century, maybe more “Reciprocal tariffs“They are digized. (See the charts.)
This is the IMF’s work to feel what this unnecessary shock can mean for the world economy. At the end of World economic outlookIt is very good to do. This does not mean you know. No one is doing. We have faced a great difficulty that we have no idea what our previous clusters and complex global economy work, we will do, this, and then what we will do in response to the other.
As a result, the United States and China are the greatest reality, other than the banned tariffs on each other, and the prohibited tariffs applied by China. This itself is economically paralyzed. Indeed, one of the very miserable truths of the Trump Administration is in the free society, which is definitely the most important role of the government reduce Do not do anything that can do to raise it in uncertainty.
Review the background to Trump shock. Economic Adviser of the Foundation, the Foundation’s Economic Adviser, WEO as notes in future notes: “The global economy showed surprising stability during the fierce blows of the last four years.” Inflation fell into high time. Unemployment and vacancy rates also returned to pandemic levels. Global growth, 3 percent, lower than the past, at least respected, approached the potential. However, many economies were under the pandemic trends. The United States was the greatest exception.
Then the work was better improved, but there were significant charinkurs. In many countries, inflation is not yet returned to the target. State debts and shortcomings are usually at a high level, mostly as a result of efforts for shocks. Interest rates are also at high levels. Thus, it is more difficult to use financial or monetary policy for pillow shocks. Not surprisingly, growth forecasts are lowered. Not surprising but also Trump carries a war in Jay Powell in Federal Reserve. The second to resist. I remember how the 1970s were devastating in inflation. We do not need repetitions in our fragile world economy.
The IMF also reduces the fertility of steep tariffs and explains how the unified expenses work as an effective shock. Hit ones, a negative demanding shock, as an export request, decreases by showing low prices. As WEO says, in both cases, trading can be reinforced in the uncertainty, investment and expenditure, and increase this effect and increase this effect and fighting this impact and fighting this impact and fighting this effect. “
WEO’s “reference forecast” is based on events announced on April 4. In 2026 in 2025 in 2025 in 2025 in 2025, in 2025, it is lower than this option for 2025, for 2025 forecasts for 2025.
This prediction leaves the effect of changes since April 4. On April 9, for example, Trump posted a 90-day break in higher tariff rates in many countries. At the same time, tariffs for Chinese goods have been increased, and in all countries remain 10 percent minimum. China has been reconciled. Two days later, the United States said he would be free from many electronic devices. China in the United States in the United States in the United States in the United States in the United States in the United States in the United States in the United States in the United States in the United States in the United States in the United States in the United States in the United States in the United States in the United States in the United States in the United States in the United States in the United States in the United States in the United States in the United States in the United States in the United States in the United States in the United States in the United States in the United States in the United States in the United States in the United States in the United States in the United States in 25 percent. “
This is a world economy facing short, large negative risks: a cruel separation of super powers; pressure to choose between both the United States and China; Violent loss of US reliability and good sense of good sense; financial and financial crises; FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC DISEASE in developing and developing countries in a rapidly shrinking world; Deep economic and humanitarian crises; Exacerbated social and political instability; And even big wars.
Of course, the Fund may not investigate the geopolitical effects of the possible rejection of the integrated world in the last eight decades. However, the question can be prevented from the full rate of these negative risks. This point indicates that the fear of the moment will lead to people back from Brink and take a new world order again. For example, China should understand that the global student will not trust to draw a huge economy. Finally, if the internal student transition to the focused economy, it can be at least reducing the global crisis. The United States will never return and leave useless nostalgia for a more measurable and more measurable production economy and measures more – it is really possible to move to more sizes and trade policy.
Me no optimistic. But I can hope. We cannot stay on a road towards economic and political disaster.
