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Why the former Reagan economist Art Laffer Kudlow says President Donald Trumps are worried about the trade war.
This International Currency Fund (IMF) cut on Tuesday Growth forecasts for the United States and other countries related to trade policy and weaker demand.
The IMF report is 2025 economic growth The forecast for increasing 0.9%, 0.9% (GDP) from the growth rate of the gross domestic product (GDP) in January in January. He also cut the 2026 forecast 0.4 percent to 0.7%.
Since the beginning of this year, the economic growth estimate “greater politics, indefinite, trade voltage and gentle demand”.
“Since the broadcast of January 2025, a number of new tariff measures have been implemented by the United States and trade partners, resulting in universal US tariffs and effective tariffs in a century,” he said.
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International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourincas, on April 22, 2025, the IMF / World Bank Group in Washington speaks in World Economic Outlook during Spring meetings. (Through Jim Watson / AFP Getty Images / Getty Images)
“This is a great shock to grow. It has an unexpected impact on the spread of events, as well as economic activity and outlook, and at the same time, it is more difficult to make a basis for the internal consistent and timely forecast sets,” he said.
President Donald Trumps The trade policy has exceeded the 1930 Smoot-HWWLEY tariffs, pushed an effective US tariff speed up to the highest level of all imports to the highest level in a century. Economists believe that Smoot-Hawley tariffs worsen the great depression, which causes global trade.
Fed in New York for the highest level of unemployment in the Fed survey since 2020
Tariffs are taxes for imported goods paid by the importer, which usually passes higher prices at higher prices. (Photographer: Sam Wolfe / Bloomberg Getty Imager / Getty Images)
Global growth is expected to be slow due to tariffs and uncertainty Trade policyIn 2026, in 2026, in 2025, the increase in 2.8% in 2025, and in 2026, the increase in 3% in January was 3.3%.
In Euro areaEconomic growth is expected to be 0.8%, which is a 0.2 percent point from the previous forecast.
Increased markets and developing economies result in a significant discount in 2025 and 3.9% in 2026 and in 2026 The most affected countries by tariffsFor example, China. Growth in China is up to 4% in 2025 and 2026, from the forecast of January 0.6 and 0.5 percent.
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President Trump tariffs increased inflation expectations and economic uncertainty. (Andrew Harnik / Getty Images / Getty Images)
The IMF report also lifted it inflation forecast The United States has been increased by 3% to 3% since 2025, compared to January forecast.
This raised the price of stubborn price dynamics in the sector, as well as the price of the prices of the price (excluding food and energy) and the supply of the latest tariffs “increased.
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IMF’s Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourincas told journalists that the IMF does not forecast the US economy decline At this time, but added that the bets of a decline increased from about 25% to 37%.
Reuters contributed to this report.
