How will India respond to Kashmir killings

Bleed in Pahalgam on Tuesday – At least 26 tourists were killed in the gunshot – Since 2019, the most deadly militant attack in Kashmir.

The victims were not soldiers and officials, but the civilians on vacation in one of the most picturesque valleys in India. It is also a cruel and symbolic that the coup is both cruel and symbolic, not only in life, but also for a fragile sense of India, a fragile sense of India worked hard for the project.

Given the history of Kashmir’s Frough – both India and Pakistan are completely allegedly allegedly, but as pressured by the Pressing of India, as pressure, the precedent is likely to be formed.

Delhi took a number for beginners retalory steps: Closing the main border crossing, halting a critical water sharing agreement and throws diplomats.

More significantly, the Minister of Defense Rajnath Singh swore “Strong answer” The activity is not only against sinners, but also the masters behind the “neflious acts” in India.

The question, analysts say there was a military reaction, but when and how much it was calibrated, nor does it cost.

“We see a strong response – to both internal audiences and actors in Pakistan, especially since 2019, were laid on revenge or air strikes.

“It will be difficult for the government to move below. Pakistan will respond as before. As always, it does not calculate both sides.”

Mr. Raghavan is something to get two prevalks from the two prevalent by India in 2016 and 2019.

After that The deadly uri attack In September 2016, 19 Indian soldiers were killed, “Surgical Blows” were killed on the Border of India, known as “Surgical Blows” (LOC), Pakistan-managing Kashmir as a serviceman’s launch pads.

And then in 2019 At least 40 soure personnel were killed in Pulwama, India hit a militant camp allegedly in Balakot with airlines – Since 1971, it has been the first such a holiday in Pakistan. Pakistan responded with air raids, caused a dog table and a short-catchment of an Indian pilot. Both sides showed strength, but fleeing the fully scale war.

Two years later, in 2021 they Agreed with a Lock ceasefireDespite mainly militant attacks, despite mainly retained militant attacks.

Foreign policy Analyst Michael Kugelman, the high death rate and the target of civilians in the final attack, or simply determines the level of Pakistan, it will be strongly will be strong. “

“The main advantage of such a reaction of India will be political, because India will have a strong pressure to respond to the BBC,” he said.

“Another advantage is that if a revenge is successfully implementing terrorist goals, the disadvantage is a serious crisis and even confidence in confidence.”

What are the options of India?

COVERT OFFERS ACTIVITIES, but can provide information about Christopher in Albany University in the United States for waiting for its political need to review the political need.

It records the two possible paths of India.

First, the ceasefire is strong, 2021, the Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi can return to border fire.

Second, air attacks or even conventional cruise missile strikes, as in 2019, as in 2019 – each of which is seen in the air shots that are watching a revenge spiral.

“There is no way. The United States is distracting, and can help the crisis management or help the crisis management,” Mr. Kling, Mr. Kling, told the BBC.

One of the most serious risks in any Indian-Pakistan crisis is that both sides are nuclear armed. This truth, throws a long shade on each decision, only forms political calculations, not a military strategy.

“Nuclear weapons are both dangerous and restrained – are decided on both sides. It is likely to be accurate and targeted by any answer, then Raghavan says.

“We saw this example as other conflicts, Israel-Iran-calibrated strikes.

Mr. Kugelman says that one of the lessons of the Pulvan crisis is “Every country is comfortable using a limited meter.”

“India should draw political and tactical advantages of revenge with a serious crisis or conflict risk.”

Former Pakistani Ambassador of Pakistan in the United States, this time, this time it is possible to take into account the “surgical strikes”, as India is in 2016.

“According to India, the advantage of such strikes is limited, so Pakistan does not need to respond, and still demonstrates the Indian community to the Indian community.”

“However, such strikes may invite you to revenge Pakistan, which claims that it was accused of a knee-press reaction without any investigation or evidence.”

If the course selects India – or Pakistan responds – each step is full of risk. The threat of escalation and thus further eliminates the fragile peace in Kashmir.

At the same time, India must calculate the attack by security failures that allow the attack to happen in the first place. “Such an attack on the top of the tourist season,” Mr. Raghavan said that the federal government took a serious break in the unity directly managed by the government’s law and order. “