CEOs have difficulty and consumers warn “stagnation shock, ‘analysts

• Stagflation is a combination of slow growth and growing inflation and “stagnation shock” according to trade wars Apollo Global Management. The company in a new research note mentioned by the Chief Economist Torsten Slock forecasts the sequence of events that could lead to economic disaster.

Last Row the tariffs Trump administration has announced the potential to commit a recession until the summer of 2025 report From the APOLLO global management.

Based on the potential sequence of Apollo’s events, based on shipping containers from China to USA delay President Trump’s Freedom Day Tariff After the address of this month. Time to allow 20 to 40 days travel time, the containers sent to US ports may stand in May. In the middle of May, it will give you a quick slowing Download RequestThat people are following less resources in stores to buy. With these traits, it would mean slow sales in spring, retail and future withdrawals may come in late May and early June. Then, in the summer of 2025, it can be a full recession.

Chief Economist Torsten Slok, Dosier Director Rajvi Shah and Asshuri Shruti, the author of the author and the author of the author and the author of the United States is rapidly accelerated due to trade violations.

Although the Trump’s Tariff Plan was previously announced previously, the warning signs appeared. The Apollo report specifies the source of stagflateral shock because they have caused the reduction in trade wars, supply chain and lower trade volumes. At the same time, trade stands can reduce competition. Dreadful dilution result in slow or stagnant growth and increase in inflation. Had never been Continuous period in four decades a great kingdom.

Apollo research notes warn that an important work is short and causes serious concerns that consumers are on the way consumers.

Turns off the confidence of CEO

Chief executivetoward The latest survey The CEO confidence has reduced 62% of the highest execs, which reduced the optimism in six months, slowly or the best of the recession.

In April, the forecasted CEO of a severe recession in March rose from 9% to 14% Chief executiveMonthly request found. In addition, 84% of CEO announced the expected income increase in the early year, and the income is expected to increase when CEOS again happened in April 2025.

In the April survey, only 9% of the General Director is expected in the early year compared to 44%.

With the optimism of CEO, a steep burning is combined with a similar decline in a positive prediction among consumers.

Reduces consumer delivery

One New chart Sunday, SLOK, Apollo’s Chief Economist, a new unit of the new record of households was made only for minimum payments on credit card balances.

This Federal Reserve Bank Philadelphia Credit card residues revealed that there are “consumer distress” signs. The percentage of accounts, which made the minimum payments, was subjected to 12 years, and the sinners were close to new highs, and the measurements were close to new highs.

At the same time, people who will lose their jobs are becoming more and more anxious.

This University of MichiganInstitute of Social Research Exploring consumers In April, the Consumer Felt Index was reduced to 52.1, fell from 57 in March. About two-thirds of consumers According to the director of the institute and an update, according to the director of the institute and economist Joanne HSU, I think it will double this year, twice as much this year.

“In a disturbing development, consumers are very concerned about the prospects of income, which are increasingly income,” he said.

Less than 50% think that their income will increase this year, and two-thirds think that the shopping force in the coming months will be demolished in the coming months.

This story was first displayed Fortune.com

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