Bump for disorder as the great power turn begins

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The writer is the author, the latest, ‘Homes: European Private History’

ES-seat canadian Seer-singer Leonard Cohen ends with a poem who testified us: “Oh and something more / you will not want / after America / America.

As we have passed the 80th anniversary of the late World War I in Europe, each day brings another evidence of the international order led by a longevity US. Now everyone is rotating to use what can succeed. A new polar order? Areas of influence? A world scale of the 19th century concert in Europe? This is the longest and dangerous period of global disorders to date.

Of course, the universal liberal international order has not been a golden century. However, there was a security and economic order led by Liberal Leviathan in large areas of the world, Europe, Asia and Ocean, because Princeton Scientist John Ikenberry has set the post of US in 1945 from the United States. At the beginning of this century, this command, which has been reduced for a while, for some time, partially “relaxation” is a while due to globalization and globalization and defects.

President Donald Trump is already destroying the remains of buildings with an unparalleled speed and carelessness. Unless American Democracy has not been unusable than the four-year Trumpian Revolution, the relations between the United States and its allies, “Do not rejoice in a confident morning” (Robert Browning) Lost leader).

Can three-digit tariffs between three or potential warfare (Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, Sudan, Sudan, Sudan, nucleus) and the world’s largest economies in the world are currently during the dangerous disorder? Some still hope this will emerge with a miraculous restoration of the former order or the creativity of the new. Well, let’s hope, but there are a few good reasons to doubt here.

Although a rising super power (China) and the relatively reduced super strength (US) “Thucydides trap” Go to war, the periods of great power shifts are almost constantly increasing international tensions. Chinese and Russian leaders only met in Moscow to reaffirm the West’s partnership and noted the end of the European part of the European part of World War. Xi Jinping is even equivalent to the “arrogant fascist forces, which defeated today’s” combination, hegemonyism and insults “in 1945. . Narendra Modi has an obsessive hostility against India’s own nationalist ambitions and Pakistan, which supports its own nationalist ambitions and China.

In addition to these competitive great powers, there are a number of medium power such as Turkey, Brazil and South Africa. Surprisingly, these countries often see opportunities in the new disorder. For a goal, they can always develop their goals for another for the other. Meanwhile, small states, such as those in the Gulf, can be played in the Egyptian plover bird and all the great powers.

Nuclear weapons Hiroshima and Nagasaki had a nuclear weapon, taboo on their use. A large war by a country that waives a nuclear period from a nuclear warehouse to the United States, Great Britain and Nuclear Warehouse in 1994 against Ukraine in 1994

South Korea, South Korea, South Korea’s promising South Korea’s promise to North Korea in exchange for Ukraine’s military support, has active discussions in connection with the obtaining a nuclear weapon. The topic in many men in the Middle East, the teeters between this region and a nuclear armed Israeli and nuclear limit, Europeans need their nuclear umbrellas.

Meanwhile, a sustainable technological revolution, information, information, software and communication networks, create new dimensions of geopolitical competition. Especially AI, a new weapon racing brings the threat of a study that is more unexpected from the core of the Cold War. If China could surprise the United States with a DeepSeek, why could not develop a deep depth? The increase in population and climate change will compete for resources and pressures for mass migration.

There are opposite forces to make sure. China has an open economic interest in protecting the open world trading system of the biggest single beneficiary. Even the most extraordinary average powers should ensure that the disorder has become a common division. There are encouraging signs of a liberal war in Canada, Australia and Europe. Pope Leo XIV promises to “build bridges” in a problem.

Nothing is inevitable in history. The liberal international order was never fully implemented ideal, our beliefs, Melancholy Cohen was informed that we were right. We must be actively prepared for a period of global disorder stretching.