The recession of the US does not appear more

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The writer is the director of economic policy research at the American Institute

If an American president would want to express the US economy in more than a century and accelerates the tariff rates for China to build a facto embargo, it would be a good strategy.

The engineering recession was not aimed at the Donald Trump, which was not the goal of Donald Trump, while investing in this summer trade war, but investors were less interested in the influence of his policies and than in the chaos atmosphere. Closed productivity and dollars fell, bonds increased and economists went on the time of the recession.

However, the Trump sent to reduce the ratings of Bakaron and leadership to reduce the tariff rate on Chinese imports on Monday to reduce the ratings of economists. And rightly. This year is impossible for a recession. Trump seems to be wanting to increase conflict with China, argue He does not want to “hurt” and praise the “very good” attitude to Beijing. The Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was further strengthened, lean: “No party wants to make a complaint.”

Trump also seems like a de-growth of trade war. Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, said that two dozen trade agreements claimed to be “very solved in markets” last Friday. ” And Thursday Trump talked to the potential trading deal with India.

Another reason for a more optimistic economic outlook, Trump over the past few weeks revealed that the markets are ready to be pivoted when adequate pressure is used. After negative market reactions, the “Freedom Day” put the so-called tariffs on the ice. Despite the continuation of the Grouse on the Federal Reserve Chairs, Jay Powell said it openly He has no intention to fire it.

As in the pressure of markets, Trump’s bad survey numbers will eventually take Pivota. To increase the high prices, it is mainly noticeable for a president, the total net approval rating – minus 10 percent of water – minus 26 percent) and inflation (minus 26 percent) and inflation (minus 26 percent) and inflation (minus 26 percent).

Even Trump, which allows you to allow this week’s dialisation, has increased the average US average effective tariff for the office in January. As consumer prices increase, the Republicans will be less popular among Republicans, including Republicans. As it opened this period, the annoying concern in connection with the intermediate elections will find the courage to speak against his tariffs.

Moreover, the War of Commerce is risking the provisions of the most political oxygen in Washington, the provisions of the 2017 tax discount in Washington. Trump, next year, delete a republican election and lowers tariff rates before allowing mass tax growth.

Another reason for a more optimistic worldview is the sustainability of the US economy in the last two months. Employers last month Added In January or February this year, more net salaries and the unemployment rate did not increase.

Monthly salary research is carried out during the payment period in April 12, which gives a window to the work market performance in the first half of the month. This was most of the trade war damage, but there was There is no meaningful increase New claims for unemployment for weeks expired on April 26, or May 10.

Meanwhile, heading drop In the first quarter there was a GDP growth deceptive. The last quarter of the US Combustion Department shows that the data of real consumer expenditures exceeded by 2024 percent. The work has increased the increase of 1.3 percent in quarter of the quarter of investments. Compared to the first quarter of 2024, real GDP has grown a very healthy 2 percent.

To be clear, the escalation on Monday is also undaling dignity. The economy is not out of the forest – the average US average effective tariff rate has been still high since the 1930s Smoot-Hawley period.

Fewer container ships in American ports show that some shelves will be empty and are likely to be drawn for transport and warehouses. Tariffs will increase consumption prices, reduce real income and leading consumers to reduce spending. US manufacturers import parts and equipment, so tariffs will reduce its competitiveness and Reduce their demands for employees. Mass uncertainty from Trump’s variable trade policy will be dragged in business investment and expansion.

And my optimism may be wrong. The first sign of the problems in hard economic information, enterprises may start leaving and freezing their expenses. Small businesses can not even make the weather in the past few months in import costs. Given anxiety In the medium-term inflation expectations, the Fed can cut the rates to soften the shock from low income and weak demand.

However, the desire to strengthen Trump, Pivot and the economy of the economy shows that the United States can escape the worst. This does not mean you will get the best. Trump’s commercial war will slow growth and unemployment is an astonishing action. A failed and tragic metric to avoid a recession.