Stagflation Fears, the entry into force of Trump tariffs and the economy slows

The fear of a growth in the economy accompanied the inconvenience to a revival in inflation, in turn, has potentially increased the ugly situation in 50 years.

Fear from Stagflation came as President Donald Trump It seems defined Fist tariffs At the same time, it points to the withdrawal of many indicators in the activities of everything that came to the country.

The dual threat of high prices and slower growth is among consumers, among the business leaders and politicians, not to mention investors Squeezing stocks and lately picking bonds.

“It is a stagnation,” said Mark Zandi, Moody’s Chief Economist Moody’s Analytics. “This is a higher inflation and weak economic growth that is the result of political and immigration policy.”

The phenomenon has been seen since hyperinflation and the dark days of dark days in the 1970s and early 80’s, recently, reveals in “soft” information such as self-polls and supply manager indices.

At least between consumers, long-term inflation expectations are the highest level in almost 30 years. Consumer expenses fell According to the trade department, although the revenue increases sharply in January in January, but the income increased sharply.

Monday, Institute of Supply Production Survey In February, the Procurement Managers became known in February that in February, new orders in February have fallen in the past five years and jumped by the highest monthly margin.

Federal Reserve of Atlanta after ISM report Gdpnow Rolling economic data size has lowered the first quarter of economic growth to a decodge of 2.8% per annum. If this, the first quarter of 2022 and early 2020 would be the first adverse adverse number of the worst since the closure of the Covid.

“Inflation expectations are over. People are nervous and uncertain about growth,” said Zandi. “We are moving towards stagnation, but because the FED does not allow ’70 and ’80s’, we will close close to the standing close to the stand.”

Indeed, the markets will begin to cut interest rates in June with a greater chance, and in June, and in the way of any economic slowdown can lOP a quarter of a percentage of a percentage.

However, Zandi thinks that the Fed reaction can only be contrary – Inflation, which aggressively walked in the early 80’s, increases prices to close inflation in the vein of Walkker, and the economy will be recited. “If it looks like a real duration of slow growth, they will sacrifice the economy,” he said.

Sell ​​in stocks

After winning Trump after November, delete earnings after winning, causing waves in Wall Street, which is extracted from the sale.

Although the Dow Jones Industry has fallen again, although about 4.5% of March was eliminated in the first days of March, sales were especially hastened and did not feel CBOE Variability indexThe size of the market fear was not much more than a long-term average of 23 celebrations in the afternoon. The markets were good comes out of the session In the afternoon trade.

“This is not the time to hit the panic button,” said Mark Hackett, national head market strategy. “At this point, I am still in the camp that this is a healthy reset of expectations.”

However, this is not only stocks showing signs of fear.

In recent days since September, the treasury productivity has taken place in recent days. The 10-year-old note product, a 10-year-note product from about 4.2%, January 19 percent, a reliable recession, which is a reliable recession, invents a revenue curve. The opposite price comes in the opposite, so felling productivity shows a greater investor appetite for fixed income securities.

Hackett said he feared a “bad circle” of an activity created by mysterious feeling that could become a completely blown crisis. Economists and work executors see the tariffs that hit the range of food, vehicles, electricity and other items.

Stagflation “Of course, it is something to pay attention to more than a while,” he said. “We must follow. It is such a collapse in feelings and it is such a change in the look of things and the level of emotions is so high, it will begin to affect behavior.”

The White House sees ‘the largest American’

In turn, white house officials will protect the long-term benefits of short-term pain will be a dwarf with tariffs. Trump, primarily, solved the tasks such as the way to create a stronger production base in the United States, which is based on the economy.

Trading Secretary Howard Lutnick may have short-term price actions in a CNBC interview Tuesday. But it will be completely different in the long run. ” Market-based inflation expectations are in line with this part. A metric, which size is The spread between nominal 5-year treasury is against inflationat the lowest level of about two years.

“It will be the largest American. We will be a balanced budget. Interest rates will fall and 100 key points, 150 key points,” Lutnick added. “This president intends to deliver all these things and the production driver here.”

In the same way, the Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Fox reported “There will be a transition period” and said that the management was more on the main street than the wall street.

“Wall Street was great. Wall Street could continue to do good, but we have a small business and consumer.” “We are going to re-share the economy, we will bring production work home.”

In the country’s leadership, important tips must come from the non-catastrophic salary report on Friday. If the number of work is good, it can strengthen the concept of stable data.

However, in the report, the salary shows higher, it shows that salary will be higher, it can add to stagflation.

“We must be an observer. By talking about it, there is a potential to stand by himself and some of themselves,” he said. “I’m not in the-in-in-in-in-in-in-in-in-in-in-in-in-in-in-in-in-in-in-in-in-in-in-in-in-in-in-in-tip.”