Putin thinks that you are next to time

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“Vladimir, stop!” After a recent Russian bombing of Kiev, Donald Trump was a whim message.

However, Vladimir Putin is not likely to stop. The Russian president also believes that in the war in Ukraine, both in the battlefield and the international stage. Trump tries to move forward with peace plan – with calls to Putin and VolodyMyr Zelenskyy on Monday. Ukraine and Russian leaders are in strange similar positions in the face of our diplomatic insults to Trump.

Neither Putin nor zelenskyy, don’t like the look of Trump peace plan – Despite the insistence of the US Secretary of State Marko Rubio, “the best way forward.” However, both Putin and Zelenskyy understand the dangers of the Cantian Trump.

As a result, both Russia and Ukraine adopted a similar strategy. Trump plays together with the requirements of peace – when it hopes that the other side is the other side, the other side is the other side.

It is possible that Ukraine and Russia will agree to a limited ceasefire under American pressure. However, the prospects for the settlement of the original peace are low – because the war war of Russia and Ukraine is very suitable.

The main Russian goal is still such as Ukraine’s existence as a sovereign and independent state. This does not mean that Ukraine’s official combination of Ukraine to Russia. However, this is about the size and capacity of the Ukrainian servicemen and the country’s diplomatic and military relations of the country. Ukraine will have a solution to Russia and mercy from such a settlement as a satellite state.

The current US plan was widely criticized to provide basic Russian demands on the recognition of the occupied territories and the recognition of Russian sovereignty criminal sovereignty. But again, Russia is a short departure of what he wants – about the wider questions of the sovereignty and neutrality of Ukraine.

Believing that Putin is bent about the destruction of the countries of the country, Ukrainians also spare the American peace plan. Territorial concessions in the east of Crimea and Ukraine are extremely difficult to Kyiv. However, Zelenskyy does not want to agree with something that restricts Ukraine’s right to defend itself in future wars or to prevent diplomatic, economic and security relations.

Even if NATO membership is out of the table, Ukraine still wants bankable security guarantees from the West. Otherwise, Ukrainians believe that Russia will simply use it as an opportunity to cancel the ceasefire – the next struggle will prepare for the next round.

While the issue of blame is – when peace talks fail – it is important. Putin’s best scenario raises sanctions on Trump tours and then in Zelenskyy and then ceases to supply weapons and war explorers to Ukraine. The Ukrainian government, Trump has finally hopes Putin’s real obstacles to peace, and hope that the US president will agree to the intensification of sanctions on Russia and supply new weapons to Ukraine.

Unfortunately, as work is standing, it is popular with Russia. The long-term admiration for the Zelenskyia for Trump’s Putin and his bulging antagonism is likely to lose patience with the Ukrainian leader. Trump is also involved in the idea of ​​restarting cooperation with Russia. Moscow preferred to sign affordable new business deals, agreed with expensive new arms transfers to Ukraine.

The Kremlin is also a reason to hope, if Trump disappears sanctions on Russia, it will put pressure on EU to weaken European sanctions. This failure An ultranationalist candidate who won the Romanian presidential election weekend does not guarantee the protection of EU sanctions, which is unanimously renewed – it means to buy Victor Orban.

Even if the US financial and military support is likely to be significantly reduced by US financial and military support, after the failure of Trump and EU sanctions and peace talks failed.

The position in the battlefield is thinly balanced. Russia is slowly. However, Western military analysts believe that despite the fact that Putin’s army will soon be enough tanks and armored vehicles to move forward quickly – they must pass Ukrainian lines.

The experience of Ukraine’s Defense and Drone War, provides amazing losses to Russia – 1,500 troops are being killed or injured. However, the same sources seeking this figure think that Ukrainian casualties work in almost two-thirds of Russia’s level. There is a reason to believe that about a quarter of Ukraine’s population, Russia and Putin will prevail in the charm war.

Trump is correct when labeling these Grotesque levels “BLOOD” label with loss. The US president is right to try to end the massacres for all criticism.

The problem is that Putin believes that it is next to time, Moscow has very little stimulus to make a compromise to achieve a sustainable peace. If Trump really wants to stop Vladimir, he will have to put a pressure on him.

gideon.rachman@ft.com