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The US Dollar bill and a rubles coin with a quarter of a dollar coins in Moscow on October 10, 2023.
Alexander Nemenov | AFP | Getty pictures
In the middle of a long-eliminated war, oil prices, hard sanctions and low, Russia, Russia rubles rose.
In fact, this year is the best currency in the world so far, Bank of America, more than 40% earnings. In 2025, the surprising rally of the rubles, when the currency is dramatically violated, it is a sharp reverse in the last two years.
How does the Russian currency strengthen?
The power of the rubles is to work less with a sudden jump, compared to the hardening of capital control and policy of foreign investors, told CNBC. Weakness in dollars comes as an additional bonus.
The wells list the international economist and foreign exchange strategy Brandan McKenna, three reasons for the rally of Rubles. “The Central Bank has a slightly squeezed capital, and other FX restrictions and other FX restrictions and a little progress or attempt to try peace between Russia and Ukraine.”
There is a central bank of Russia Kept a limited position that restricts high inflationkeep locals Interest rates 20% and a hardening loan. Steep debt costs Prevents local businesses From to import goods, in turn reduce the demand for foreign currency among Russian enterprises and consumers, industrial viewers.
There is a reduction in foreign exchange requirements from poor consumptions, and economist in Renaissance Andrei Melaschenko. It does not need to sell rubles to get the dollar or yuan because the landing rubles gave a boost.
In the first quarter of 2025, in consumer electronics, the increase in import duties, the second half of the last year was “excessively growing” in the second half of last year. Consumer Activity Cooldown was primarily in a sustainable commodity sector Organized a large part of Russia’s importsMelaschenko said.
In addition, Russian exporters must turn the dollar to rubles, thereby increase the currency requirement. On the other hand, the importers have allocated back to the purchase of foreign goods, and therefore do not need to sell rubles to pay for dollars.
The Russian government requires large exporters to return some of the foreign benefits to the country and exchange for the rubles in the local market. In particular, the oil industry has converted foreign gains to the rubles and analysts.
Between January-April Sale of foreign currencies The information from the CBR in Russia amounted to $ 42.5 billion. This jumps almost 6% compared to January four months ago.
CBR, the shrinking of the front is also supported by Rubles, Johns Hopkins University, Applied Economy Prof.
In August 2023, the increase in money created by the CBR reported a 23.9% increase in the year. This figure has been signed by 1.19% a year since January.
In addition, the US President Hope for the peace deal between Ukraine and Russia after the election of Donald Trump, which was also optimistic. The expectations of the re-integration of Russia’s reusement to the economy’s reintegration, despite the capacity of some capital, recalled the power of the capital they support to a certain extent to the rubles.
Is it resistant?
Despite the current power of the ruble, the analysts focus on whether it cannot be continued. Oil prices – a large column of Russia’s exports economy – this year fell this year this year.
“We believe that the ruble is close to the max and can start weakening in the near future,” he said. “Oil prices have fell significantly, which should be reflected in the decline in export revenues and selling a foreign exchange component,” he said.
Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have not yet developed any specific development, McKenna, concrete peace deals can instill the power of the rubles such as management, such as FX limits that support the currency.
“If selling rubles, especially peace or ceasefire, you can move forward quickly.
“In this scenario, capital agencies are likely to be completely removed and can cut the ratios of central banking faster,” he said.
Economic trade
Exporters also see delicate margins, industry analysts, especially in the background of reducing global oil prices in the country’s oil sector, noted the oil sector. The government is also a sense of squeezing – lower prices of oil combined with a strong rubles, exfoliate oil and gas income.
The government is the financial Highly sensitive to fluctuations in raw pricesIn 2024, with an oil and gas boiler, which accounted for about 30% of federal income, the chief economist of the General Economist in the Finnish Bank.
“The Ministry of Finance has to lose weight to the National Welfare Fund to pay the expenses,” Melaschenko said. “And if this trend continues, it can be further reduced to non-priority expenses.”
In addition to oil trade, Russia is mainly isolated from the global market. “The meaning does not add much to Russia’s trading competitiveness,” McKenna said.
