How are traders watch the Strait of Hormuz

Israeli strikes against Iran revitalize the questions of these decades, which flames the regional confrontation in the Middle East, with traders, Tehran’s throat in the throat.

Brent Crude, global assessment, increased by 78.5 $ 78.5 barrels in early Israel before Friday morning began a strike with them He killed at least two top commander against Iran’s nuclear program and military facilities.

It became clear that Israel expects Iran to target Iran because prices returned a barrel for $ 74 oil Infrastructure, but traders, said prices can move higher depending on Tehran’s retaliation.

“Sunday, Israelites are reasonable for not targeting oil infrastructure, but if you are Iran, do you know that this is a bulk, the Tehran said that a large oil trade company in the Strait of Tehran has a large oil trade company.

Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, about 21 mn barrels of the world, the world passes through a narrow water supply from the Gulf States representing a third of the world.

Pus In case of an attack, it has repeatedly threatened the throat, but never prevented all traffic. Although there is a pinching point for raw streaming, the throat is still 35 miles in the narrowest point.

“The closure of the throat will represent Iran’s most extreme movement in the moment,” said Amena Bekir, the head of the Middle East and OPEC, Energy Analytics Group KPler. “US troops in the region reacts immediately and re-switch into the throat, it will push brent prices above a $ 100 barrel.”

Given the existence of the fifth fifth of the US Navy in Bahrain, Helima Croft, head of the Global Commodity Strategy in RBC Capital Markets, said that it would be “extremely difficult” for Iran. Tehran tankers will be able to stop attacks on tankers, because in the 1980s, the Iran-Iraqi war said. However, such a step would violate more than 1 million B / D from Iran to China.

When Iran and Israel exchanged air strikes in April 2024 and October, Israel was the first to hit the first with revenge.

“This time the sequence canceled – a turn that can significantly affect market expectations and risk perceptions,” said Jorge León, Geopolitical Analysis Director Jorge Leon at Energy Consulting Rystad. If Iran violates the oil flow with Hormuz Strait, it can target the regional oil infrastructure or emphasizes US military assets, can increase prices as “a barrel or more.”

The world’s largest oil fields, including Saudi Arabia and some missiles and drones of Iraq. In 2019, Iran was believed to be behind half of the largest oil refining enterprise and half of the largest oil refining and the largest oil processing plant that global oil prices are so shortly.

At the same time, the restoration of diplomatic relations between Riyadh and Tehran in 2023, according to Kepler’s Bekir, the lesser Saudi Aramko attacked oil facilities. “Dynamics between Iran and the Gulf states have changed in recent years,” he said.

An alternative scenario can see that Islamic Republic of Islamic Republic of Islamic is aimed at 90 percent of oil exports and the government and the government and its nuclear program.

Traders have previously launched the global tariffs of the President of Donald Trump in the previous year before the previous year, and the markets will be higher if there are direct attacks on oil infrastructure.

“The right price for oil is not almost where it is today,” he said. “Basics (supply and demand) will tell you that the price must be 10 or more dollars. The risk premium should probably be higher than $ 10.”

Prior to this week’s military escalation, oil prices have been demanding Trump’s tariffs since March and the OPEC + cartel will cause to accelerate a long-term production cut.

The Saudi Arabian-LED producer agreed to restore the ship from April and July to 1.4 mn barrels, and between August and September to increase the group’s capacity to 800,000 B / D.

In the event of a large disruption, for example, most traders from Iran to supply will further increase OPEC’s production. In theory, the group still has more than 5 mn b / d in the ability to return online online.

However, on Friday, the group insisted it very soon to discuss any of the articles from emergency resources.

“OPEC) confirms that there is no development in the supply or market dynamics that guarantee unnecessary measures,” he said.