Why is Israel now chose to strike Iran

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Israel’s attack on Iran is 20 years. For decades, Israeli officials insisted that Iran did not allow the development of nuclear weapons. They also clearly stated that they were ready to use military force to destroy Iran’s nuclear program.

Two questions arise after the attack. Why now? What happens next?

Israel has six important factors that cause the attack.

The first is the effect of radicalization of Hamas’s attack on Israel dated October 7, 2023. Israeli leaders are convinced that they are in a battle for national survival than ever. They see an Iranian bomb as a risk. After the shock of October 7, they believe that they can no longer endure such a risk.

The second factor, Iran has been a weaker defense position for many years. Israeli airstrikes, in October last year, followed by Iran’s missile barrily – Iran’s air defense and rocket production. The Israelites believed they were a unique opportunity to attack Iran, although it was still increased.

The third reason, the approach of Iran’s “Breakout ability” – this would allow the nuclear weapon to collect quite rapidly. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced that Iran has violated its commitment to Iran’s nuclear contract.

The fourth factor is to feel more confident about Israel’s ability to change the Middle East, and become a regional super power. The Israelites Biden administration was warned that if they attacked Hezbollah in Lebanon, they will receive a potential destructive revenge. Benjamin Netanyahu’s government ignored these warnings, broke the Hezbollah’s leadership and withdrew. Israel has now raped Iran to its main regional enemy.

The fifth reason comes with an increase in international pressure on the nearest famine in Israel and Gaza. Iran attacks Iran, Netanyahu allows the government to change the issue, and it allows Israel’s increasingly critical rally to Israeli protection.

The sixth and last factor was a loss of trust in the nuclear talks of the Israeli Trump Administration with Iran. The Israelites believed that these talks were not only misunderstood and potentially dangerous, because they could leave Iran with a nuclear program. Israel decided to short circle in this process between Iran and the United States.

Trump management knew that this could happen. In recent days, high-ranking US officials said they believe that they have a good chance to sign European visitors with Iran. However, they added that Israeli would not be satisfied without a deal, and Netanyahu believed that the government would move on to Iran.

A week ago, the United States moved several missile protection from Europe to Israel, as well as evacuated some military dependence from the region – it shows that they have a good idea to happen.

By attacking, Israel also cuts a transparent and divisive dispute within the Trump Office, whether Israel helps Israel strike or even directly.

When Trump was working as a michael security advisor, Mike Waltz believed that the war, Israeli supporters, the faction of Israel, who was more suspicious in the Middle East in the Middle East.

However, the attack of Israel, the protectors of Trump led. Netanyahu knows the government – this latest Lebanese precedent – Israel may not ignore the flavor of America for restraint, and the United States and its allies still protected Israel from the revenge on Israel. Alternative, Tel Aviv can be seen by ballistic missiles and drones – and no US government is likely to accept it.

Nevertheless, Israel pays a long-term price in the United States, as it seems to enter another Middle East war in the United States. Trump management, which fought inflation, will also be concerned with any rise in global oil prices.

European governments are wrapped for the problem. In transport in the Gulf, rising energy prices, new streams of refugees and such as Egypt are concerned about the stability of the main countries in the region.

The next thing next will be clearer in the coming days, Iran will depend on the scale and effectiveness of revenge. If Iran is struggling to hit Israel directly to Israel, after the American bases in the region – in Qatar and Bahrain, it may be tempting to join. However, any action may be a reflection of the United States since the United States has ensured a full-scale participation in the war.

Other risky Iranian options are discussed by regional strategists long ago – the region includes blocking or disrupting oil exports. Saudi Arabia is very concerned about holidays on saline plants that are very important for water supply.

Any such actions will invite Iran to make a further strike by countries other than Israel. However, the Iranian regime can feel that it is in the struggle for its survival, like Israel. At the same time, it is necessary to demonstrate its power to the Iranian people and a wider region.

The escalation period can only begin.

gideon.rachman@ft.com