The stock market likes to climb the wall of anxiety.
Of course, we saw it during the last two months. Despite the recognition of the recognition of the tariff and tariffs for the economy and tariff tariffs on the economy and the economy, the S & P was 20% rating. Technology reserves have done even better. Nasdaq Composite, most technological leaders’ house is 27%.
The President has suspended most reciprocal tariffs called the “Freedom Day”, which has been called “Freedom Day” since the rally since the rallies since Trump.
However, in particular, there is a good reason to worry about the fact that the heights and its assessment is always pretty in the S & P 500.
The risk of the rally in which the rally of shares may lose many brightness, long-term hedging fund manager Douga Kass, including the attention of many Wall Street veterans.
The Cass has been navigating markets since the 1970s, including Leon Cooperman’s Omega consultants and experience in good and bad periods in late this year and sold in April this year.
This week, Kass, renewed the worldview, including why investors are a surprisingly long list of red flags to be careful.
Doug Cass is waiting for some of the latest earnings of shares. Thestreet
The best installation for tantalization turns is quite excessive enough to return the price to the price of the price to the levels near the lower end of historical average.
In February, the probabilities were caught on the p / e ratio of 62, and the ratio of 500s were arrested and the most felt measures were arrested in February, the tariff burned.
Sell in early April, S & P 500s and 19.9 P / E ratio of P / E from the S & P 500, the P / E ratio, but the lower levels of the p / E was removed, but most of those who are low enough to help the catapult shares read. As a reminder, CNN’s fear and greed was “extreme fear”, and by most measures in the days of the April 2 Tariff, the sky was high.
Now he returned near the heights of the exchange, the CNN’s “greed” was once again optimistic with the size of CNN. Since earnings are not financially increased, S & P 500’s P / E ratio from 21 to north – it is difficult to cheap.
S & P 500, discount price up to save ratio on June 21.6, F.Amage source and column; Thestreet
“The evaluation has expanded in the relief rally since mid-April, and 21x forward earnings, 35% of the average in S & P 500,” June 14 is informed about analysts on June 14. “
Doug Kass, Skyrocketing Inflation in the 1970s, two-digit interest rates, deposits and credit crisis, bust and busts, large decline, pandemic, pandemic and a bear market successfully followed the market.
He saw a lot over his career about his 50 years, and the exchange warning the stock market is worth reporting.
“Shares were not attractive since the end of 2021,” Kass Thestreet pro. “There is a little space for disappointment.
More economic analysis:
Most of the prices for the prices of the prices for the continued news, the concern that this week’s trade talks could come from this week, this week, 55% of Chinese commerce deals were given recent tariffs. The effects of tariffs flow with supply chains, inflation can begin to reduce household and business expenses in months.
Unfortunately, the cassal’s mind is not the only risk. The money manager provided a list of the limit that can break the rally of shares.
It’s a long list so you can want to fill your drink. Writes:
Political and geopolitical polarization and competition will probably translate to less political centers and reduced concerns, structural uncertainty, in the world for the possibility of DisaShorism.
There are many cracks on the foundation of the Bull market and deepens, but they are not taken into account (market structure changes are worth the price of price and in general).
About 6,000 of the S & P 500 index, lower dropping risks, upside down capital – about 5-1 (negative).
Economic and corporate gain increase (22-time forward price earnings rates) and (consensus) expectations are all inflexed.
Leaving JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and others that others are “stretching more than ridiculous” of the corporate credit market.
Search for soft data (see poor nouns and unemployed claims of last week), include strictly (and weaknesses) led by an apartment market with extensive prosical evidence of the average grade and sensitivity (and see unemployed claims).
Trend-line is worried about under economic growth (apartment will lower us), “Slugflation” (“Slugflation”) – is concerned about a federal reserve to make more difficult decisions.
The growth of corporate gain (increasing in + 13% in 1Q2025) This year will seriously infect in the second half.
Capital risk reward is usually suitable in two decades – usually in the capital.
The S & P dividend product is about 1.27% – the dissemination between the dividend product and the 10-year treasury note product was rarely wide. With very possible negative results, I expect me to expect me, the balance of 2025 is seven lean months.
The Cass is clearly irritable that any single or combination of heads can lead to a bit of shares.
What should investors do? Over time, the stock market goes up and right, so those with long-term horizons are often clinging to their plans, which is often lasting and bruising along the way.
However, investors with a shorter term horizontal can only make a little risk of drinking, and the “dry powder” in the pocket and “dry powder” and the Cass warning increases “dry powder”.
