The landing of the Chinese population damages its property market

China’s real estate sector faced a decline in years. Now a shrunken population throws another shade to the stagnant property market.

Goldman Sachs, in Chinese cities, the demand for new houses will be closed in the coming years of 5 million sections – in 2017 with a quarter of 20 million peaks in 2017.

“Previous population and slow-slowing uranization reduction of demographic demographic demographic demographic demographics in the apartments” said in the celebration of Goldman Sachs economists.

The country’s population is estimated to fall from 1.39 billion to 2035 According to the latest data from the World Bank, 1.41 billionTianchen XU, the Chief Economist in the Economist Intelligence, asked the elderly population to unite more than our people and more deaths.

The population of the population will evaluate 5.5 million units of about 1.4 million units of 0.5 million each year in the 2020s each year and about 1.4 million units of Goldman Sachs, compared to the largest contribution in 2010.

The productivity ratio in the country continued to fall Despite the efforts of Beijing to promote Beijing by the cash incentive of Beijing in 2016. Instability over talks, business prospects and a weak social security system refused to have more babies of Chinese youth.

Beijing’s pronatalist policy will most likely be “limited effect”, “limited effect”, XU, and people carrying children and people as a tendency to postpone the “arms of individuality”.

In the country, about 36,000 kindergartens, 36,000 kindergartens in the last two years, were closed with the number of students in preschool schools in more than 10 million. This is due to the calculation of CNBC official Information announced the Ministry of Education. Similarly, Number of primary schools He fell to about 13,000 between 2022 and 2024.

This once collapses through apartment markets adjacent to the school, which once seen exaggerated prices behind strong demand for public schools.

Once a large prize was fueled by entering elite schools and the expectations of the growing property values. However, local governments, which are reduced to a shrinkage population and local governments, reduced the value of these homes, William Wu, DAIWA Capital Market in the Capital Market, the added value of these houses began to reduce.

The mother of a 7-year-old child in Beijing told CNBC that the price of the apartment decreased by about 20% when he received the price two years ago. It costs about twice a secondary price for an apartment in the city to be able to attend a good elementary school.

The number of children entering primary school in 2023 in 2023, according to the wind data, before falling in 2024, the year of his son.

Demographic turns is an extra overhang in the real estate market that fights a painful crisis since the late 2020. Central and Local Government Measures Since last September, the decline in real estate has shown a small amount of signs.

In May seven months, the new home prices have fallen in the fastest speed, according to Larry Hu, Macquarie’s senior province economist extended the two-year stagnation and considering the government’s efforts.

HU, in the first half of this month in 30 large cities, the new home sale has decreased by 11% during the year, and it has been deteriorating since the fall of May 3%.

“Owners of investment features are likely to be a net market for the near future,” said, “expectations to continue to fall on home prices, Goldman Sachs assessments.

When Goldman is waiting for China’s urbanization rate in the coming years, Wu, which damaged the city housing requirement, can still take decades to play demographic demographic dragging in the real estate market.

In the next period, “Some of this landing will be replaced by continuous urbanization and apartment,” Wu, secondly, because the second will form the growing share of China’s total housing.

– CNBC’s Evelyn Cheng contributed to this story.