How can regime change in Iran affect global oil prices

Old Israeli officials said this week that the military campaign against Iran could lead to a measure of an event that will have a great impact on the global oil market.

The oil market has bombed the third largest crude producer in OPEC for eight straight days of Israel, and the oil market reacted to the remarkable restraint for the end of the conflict.

Because Israel began an attack on Iran a week ago, oil prices are 10%, but so far the supply of oil, both US crude oil and global benchmark Brentine remain below a barrel.

Rising risk

According to energy analysts, the risk of increasing the risk of a large spike in prices is growing.

President Donald Trump threatened Iran’s higher leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s life and considers to help Israel destroy the nuclear program of the Islamic Republic. If the Iranian leadership targets regional oil facilities, the analysts said, if he feels the share of his existence.

Israel’s main goal is to worsen Iran’s nuclear program, Scott Modell, Advisory Company CEO Management CEO Director General of Rapidan Energy Group. But Jerusalem is also a secondary goal because the country’s internal opposition can rise to the regime regime, in which the country’s internal opposition can rise to the regime.

“They do not call the regime change, call the regime change,” said, the former CIA employee and Iranian expert serving in the Middle East.

Rejection

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the official goal of the regime’s official goal is to have an internal decision on a public broadcaster on Thursday. However, Prime Minister Kamteniin acknowledged that the regime could fall as a result of the conflict.

Defense Minister Israeli Katz will strengthen the Israeli military attacks on “the basics of power” on Friday by attacking the “basics of power”. During the opening days of the Israeli campaign, Khamenei was asked to killBut the Trump plan veto.

MODELL said that the regime in Iran does not have a sign on the eve of collapse.

However, future political stabilization in Iran “may lead to many high oil prices for a long time,” he said.

Since 1979, there have been 8 regime changes in major oil-producing countries since 1979. According to the bank, according to the crisis, after these changes, after these changes, after these changes, it increased by an average of 76% to the bank, according to the bank, approximately 30% higher than the crisis.

For example, since the mid-1980s in mid-1980s, three times in the mid-1980s increased by the mid-1980s, and for JPMorgan, he gave the Islamic Republic to power. The economic recession has occurred worldwide.

Recently, Muammar Gaddafi in the leadership in Libya, in April 2011, up to 93 oil prices in April 93 and from a barrel to $ 130 to $ 130, until $ 130 per barrel, for $ 130 per barrel. This price was overlapped by the European debt crisis and the bank was caused by the bank, according to the bank.

Libya is greater

Iran regime change will have a larger impact on the global oil market than in Libya, because Iran is a larger manufacturer, MODELL said.

“We need to see some strong indicators of the state that this regime is really starting to look real before the market is actually starting in three plus mills per day,” Modell said.

If the regime in Iran thinks that there is an existential crisis, this can use the shareholders of short-range missiles located in Helima Croft in RBC capital markets.

Tehran, a narrow water body between Iran and Oman, which is about 20% of the world’s oil flows, can try to build a narrow water.

“We are already reporting that Iran’s ship’s transponders are very, very aggressive,” Croft told CNBC “Fast money“Wednesday. The Ministry of Qatarenergy and the Greek shipping already warned to prevent the throat to prevent fish.

“They are not quiet water, but there are no quiet waters,” he said.

Even larger than bets

Rapidan sees US 70% chance that the United States will join Israeli airstrikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities. MODELL, if Iran’s Key Uranium enrichment facility was shot, oil prices are likely to hit the rally between 4 and $ 6 dollars if the price of about 4 Uranium enriches. Iran will likely respond to a limited fashion to ensure the survival of the regime.

However, according to Rapida, there are 30% of Iran’s energy supply, taking revenge on infrastructure or ships in the Gulf of Infrastructure in Hormuz. According to the company, Iran is fully mobilized to violate the transport in the throat, oil prices may increase over $ 100.

“In our opinion, Bob Bob, the founder of Bob Bob McNally, Rapida in the market, the founder of Rapida and former energy advisers, Rapida’s former Energy Adviser George W. Bush.

Shipping can be cut for weeks or months, McNally, not the appearance of the Oil Market, Fifth Fleet of the United StatesLocated in Bahrain, would solve the situation in hours or days.

“There would be no cakewalk.”