Trump should oppose the call of the regime change in Iran

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The writer is a former US High-Level National Security Council and the State Department Official

It will be a few weeks – for years, in fact, the United States has been “very successful”, the United States has been “very successful,” said President Donald Trump and bombs later. Bombs hit their goals and strikes can return the Iranian nuclear program for months or even years. But this is a cry from a guaranteed “success”.

Short-term questions are how much work is actually operating and how much Iran’s highly enriched uranium reserves in the underground enrichment site in Fordow. Before the holidays, Iran is more than 400 kg of Heu, probably in relatively small canisters and has been potentially detained around the country. Even if a small part of this material survived the attack, Iran still has enough felify material for several nuclear bombs today.

The main issue for a long time will be the fact that the strikes will affect Iran’s nuclear ambition. The best job scenario would be to understand that a decade-long enterprise to ask for Iran, nuclear weapons to want the chosen. However, Iranian leaders can further increase the process they can only protect their nuclear weapons and produce them fairly – Israel is a country bombing the nuclear program delivered in 1981, which is a wide range of nuclear knowhowu and refusing to allow. Thus, if the United States and Israel do not want to bomb it over and over again, it can easily restore its nuclear activities.

The key will prevent the mission to be a longer-term success, the United States will further draw the war and prevent the next-term military escalation that could further increase the nuclear weapon program. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, if Washington entered the war, threatened us to “irreparable damage”, but the choices are extremely limited. Iran’s proxy network was broken, the long-term ballistic missile force was significantly exhausted and its air defenses were destroyed, or Israel left the opposite attacks.

Iran is still a number of mines and sea assets that can temporarily close the pain of large-haired missiles and oil prices that can target the forces and oil prices for forces and bases in the region. However, most of these steps would almost invite us to the strong US-threatening US vengeance. The main purpose of the regime is to continue power, so the potential nuclear prevents the potential. The regime of responding to the war in a way that further the United States can threaten the nuclear program.

It is difficult to imagine that Iran does not respond to an American attack on any American nuclear facilities. Israel can fire more ballistical missiles, trying to fire on Yemen, Iraq and regional bases or drones in Iraq and Syria, perhaps to secure an oil tanker or demonstrate an oil tanker. If it is smart, it will make the answer to the Iranian nationals, but in October, but in October, it will make the escalation in October, but the options have chosen to increase because it is so bad.

Of course, Iran also hopes that the Americans will deliberately kill and increase the appetite for the more expensive war in the Middle East, and this Trump will increase the blood and treasury price.

Trump itself has a great interest to prevent the final scenario and can help Tehran to do so by sending the right signals. Some will recommend that Iran will eliminate the only way to eliminate nuclear choice, but it will be the strongest way to drag us into war.

Instead, they will be changed from the TRUMP regime from the table and the Iranian leaders will pay a great price to revenge against the United States, but the escalation and even cooperation is still possible. The Iranian leadership believes that “calls it”, and now they can protect their authority, and maybe the other choices can report how bad other options are.

Trump’s strikes on Iran were a great and unnecessary gambling. But turning them to a real success will depend on making favorable decisions of the next few days.