By Mike Dolan
London (Reuters) – What is important in the US and global markets today
By Mike Dolan, Editor-Large, Financial Industry and Financial Markets
In the Middle East, the United States has been declared the productivity of crude, gold, treasury and the dollar has been rejected since Israel’s initial attack on Iran.
Energy market concerns along this episode never formed a true ‘shock’ as oil actions. Given the great global supply worldview and declining world demand, annual US oil prices have become positive at any point in the last 12 days, and even set a new height for 2025.
Today’s market news will discuss the following market news and then go away from the headlines, and then I will go away from the headlines to explain that the immigration and American ratage can affect the influence of the US labor market’s federal reserve.
Today’s market minute
* The oil fell by 4%, global shares increased, and US President Donald Trump said he was ceasefire in ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
* At the same time, Israeli Defense Minister Israeli Katz decided to set fire to the missiles fired by the ceasefire after Iran.
* The sharp reverse of crude oil is a few words for moving a key player’s market to move a key player’s market, but ROI Rota Russell offers a greater issue of playing silent here: Iran’s allies.
* Investors have reduced that the dollars are exposed to the denominated assets by driving a low greenery over the years. ROI markets Columnist Jamie McGeever explores where most of the sale comes from most.
* Speed growth in the installation of batteries increases electrical systems in the United States. ROI columnist Gavin Maguire describes the basic battery system trends to watch.
Fat, ratios and dollars collapsed
Iran’s symptoms reacted to the bombing of nuclear facilities in the United States on the basis of nuclear facilities in Qatar, the rockets in Qatar. This continued a ceasefire with the recognition of Tehran’s Eskalat, US President Donald Trump and Israel will fled.
Whether or not the ceasefire will remain uncertain, and some exchange between Iran and Israel, this morning and the situation is still tense.
However, as it stands before opening on Tuesday, a raw barrel – a barrel below $ 12, below $ 12 and $ 12 to $ 64.38 in the session. In fact, oil is now more than 18%.
S & P increased 1% on Monday and futures are 1% before Tuesday call. The Vix Variable device returns to where on June 12, only over 18 years old, and the price of gold.
The dollar returned within a fork, which restores all 3-1 / 2 years of heights and all of the yells on Monday. Europe and Asia shares are more than 1%.
Wall Street, now federal caution, federal caution, federal caution, federal caution, two-day colleagues, the same friends, as well as supporting Dovish, who drew attention to the interest outlook
Trump thinks that the Fed should immediately move to slash the ratios with “two-three point”. Powell Lambasking was almost daily to avoid doing this.
However, the Fed board Trump’s appeals Michel Bowman and Christopher Waller, both, both, both, both, both, both, both, both, both, both, both of the heads, both of the heads and pigeons. Last week, most of the seven polycmakers reported that they had expected to cut any ratio in 2025.
Bowman, one of the most hawk members of the Fed’s policy of the Fed, evaluated Monday by saying that the next month was the time to think about the next month.
“Inflation should leave the pressures, supporting our next meeting to reduce policy speed immediately after our next meeting to ensure neutral reception and healthy labor market,” said Bowman, now for control vice
A paradel of the speakers nourished on Tuesday can pour cold water in that look, but a few brokers in the position of the central bank, the Fed with Trump, the Fed department has elected the expiration of the Fed department.
Fed futures markets still only 20% chances in July, the odds of the odds, Bowman comments and returns to almost 10 main points after retreating the oil price.
The treasury responded quickly to the level of productivity and the relaxation of energy, even with 2 years of 2-year notes, with 2 years of 2-year notes with a weekly weekly debt sales.
Benchmark 10 years of productivity, even before the call before the call, the 10-year productivity fell from 4.3%.
On Monday, Monday, Tesla shares, electric vehicle manufacturer, Tesla’s high-estimate driver rose 9% before trying a long-awaited robotaxi service.
The US migrant stopping can be deleted the growth of potential work
Why do many US federal reserve officials take place, despite the growth of immigration and America.
Often the latest news about tariffs, geopolitics and energy markets, illegal immigration, President Donald trumman now begins to move the needle to the US Work Outlook.
The flow of migrant workers in the United States has been suspended in the last year. PACE has already slowed down before the election, but this year there is a close stop due to the increase in deportations. The couple, which are constantly populating the existing employees and it seems to be on the horizon.
Economists who follow these trends, ‘potential’ of these trends ‘potential’ non-economic salary increases or more than 100,000 can fall less than 10,000 today.
During the next six months, the potential economic growth is already in the aftermath of potential economic growth, which is more than 2%.
These figures are very tough, taking into account the growth of average monthly individual salaries in the last two years.
Meanwhile, Barclays say that the impact of the population’s aging “soon strengthening the” and the growth of work is lower.
The combined effect of the two power “On the creation of important and durable headers in the potential growth of the workforce and economic activity,” he said.
Items used to make prediction are sober.
Platlijing Salary Potential
The US immigration has added 3-4 million net to the US population in the last three years. About 2 million new employees are immediately four times in advance of the annual pandemic years. These were mainly asylum seekers or ‘humanitarian’ situations that have a temporary permission to live and work in the United States
In fact, in the last two years, Barclays estimated that the average monthly private work was completed for about three-thirds of about 180,000 migrant workers.
However, since last summer, the net entry of humanitarian migrants fell to zero. On top of that, the Barclays Tracker, evaluating current deportations to work in about 10,000 months.
Flipside, US Census forecasts are about 2026 and about 100,000 in 2027 and about 100,000 in 2027.
Tweaking the main assumptions leads to different results, of course, the results of the barclays are the result of potential salary growth, and the potential GDP growth in the coming years.
Morgan Stanley also evaluated its next in the next year and next to the next, in the next 70,000 higher salaries in 2025 and 2026.
Fed headaches
The Fed may have arguments to simplify an economic deceleration, which is a demand, which is a demand from the uncertainty of the trade war.
Trump, it should immediately move to slash immediately and to its appointment board, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, both sooner than no later.
However, if the employee deficiency is a problem, it creates a very different problem for fed. In that script, the fed employment mandate fed was not at risk, but the salary pressure can still aggravate the target price from inflation.
Tariff walks are already filtering the horizon of inflation, so it is not surprising waiting for the main amount of the central bank in the central bank that continues the rest of this year.
A stroke that hit the workforce can cause growth to increase in growth and increase inflation pressure.
Fed in the field, if it transfes can guarantee.
Schedule of the day
The oil market was bombed this weekend, bombing the US nuclear facilities and a signal of alarms several times during the Dense Air War between Israel and Iran. In the context of the last 35 years of acute oil prices, this episode was less than ever. So far.
Today’s events to watch
* Current account of US Q1 (8:30 EDT), April House Prices (9:00 EDT), June Consumer Confidence (10:00 EDT), Richmond Federal Reserve June Work Pacifications (10:00 EDT)
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell presents semi-annual monetary policy phrases before the Home Financial Services Committee (9:00 EDT) (9:00 EDT)
* New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, Minneapolis Fed Head Neel Kashkari and Kansas City Fed Boss Jeff Schmid, talks; European Central Bank President Kristin Lagarde, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos and ECB Chief Economist speaks Philip Lane; Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden and Boe politician Megan Greene spoke
* US Treasury sells 69 billion 2 years of notes
* US corporate gain: FedEx, carnival
Ideas stating that the author expresses. Reuters under trust principles do not reflect the opinions of the news, deprivation of integrity, independence and prejudice.
(By Mike Dolan; Adjustment by Anna Szymanski)
