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A year ago, a generative AI Mania, who was sweeper through the silicone valley and wall prospectus, faced a serious reality check.
In a wide quote noteGoldman Sachs’ Capital Studies Jim Covello would not see a return of companies planning to cast $ 1 billion in the company’s generative AI building of companies. Meanwhile, the Venture Capital company is in Sequoia, estimated These technological companies have a $ 600 billion income to generate additional income to justify additional capital expenditures in 2024 and can produce six times more than they can produce.
Warnings, ChatGPT’s launch helped to trigger the first real test of investment since the commissioning of the industry. The revenues from the latest customers intended to take advantage of this new technology were insignificant. Where was the “killer apps” of the Generative AI? Caused a warehouse for technical investors.
A year’s lasting AI shares went through another variable swing. DeepSeek of China, delete concerns starting with low-precious AI models created by Nvidia riba To score a high record this week, to earn about 1.5TN dollars in the stock market value from April. Microsoft also noted a market coverage of 1st market in less than three months.
What is noteworthy, although a year ago changed how little it has changed in a broader income worldview of the Generative EU since warnings. Hope (and the hype) is as strong as usual, but at least it is still difficult to see where the return of the return to the AI to the AI in a short time.
On the price side, the effects of AI Mania are all very clear. Four charged technologies – alphabet, Amazon, meta and Microsoft – about two-thirds or $ 95 billion in capital costs, and $ 95 billion in 2024. It lasted this year plans to refute Capex $ 75 billion.
The further increase with the rest of the decade is cooked to expectations. Bank of America securities will expend the integration of the technological industry as a whole, to $ 333 billion to $ 2030 last year.
On the other hand, some of the EU leaders in the income of the equation, some of the EU leaders increase a large percentage – but additional income is not hundreds, but also ten billions.
Earlier this year, Microsoft, EU’s annual income ratio has reached $ 175 percent to reach 135 percent, he said. This is still 5 percent of the total income expected this year. The income escape from subscriptions, from the main source of income, approached only $ 10 billiondoubles from the end of last year. The growth rates are noteworthy, but the absolute figures are still pale than CAPEX.
Since a year ago, the signs of an explosion in Chatbot have been used in almost a night to turn it into a difficult consumer technological company. But while a large number of people are now using AI chatbots, the work remains small. According to Menlo Enterprises, about 3 percent of American adult requests, the annual revenues of the AI service they use, the annual income of the use of about $ 12 billion.
Meanwhile, the business world is still looking for the use of a generative AI that justifies serious costs. Technology has at least the fuel New generation In particular, the beginnings of the high growth program in coding, the first area of the “knowledge work” will be severely violated. However, the new generation of AI, the new generation of the AI, the largest program for bringing the EU to the world of business will not be able to cause infection in the income growth.
The first wave of AI pilots and assistants was little to change the business life. Hope changed now Agents – means capable of automating individual tasks or all business processes. According to McKinsey, agents Promise to create Serious work value by automating complex and important operations. However, the consultants also warn that this will require all the work processes again.
It will be a heavy elevator for the technological industry to convince the corporate world to go beyond many genuine pilot projects. This does not mean that there is a long time, the generative AI does not have a chance to bring the type of transformation in the life of life claimed by its strengths. However, it now showed a sign of the abyss between capital expenditures and revenues.
Richard.waters@ft.com
