AI’s work boom? Not before bust

Artificial intelligence changes the industries that once require human labor. World Economic Forum The future of work is 2025 Until 2030, AI, 92 million, the result will eventually create 170 million new jobs in 78 million jobs.

At first glance, these numbers comfort. But the real issue is not the total number of workTiming. The AI ​​can remove the work faster than the emergence of new roles and drag unemployment before the LAG labor market stabilizes.

Cause the cause is how the work is established. Today, in many areas automate human duties within the AI ​​business system. New jobs revise and reorganize their jobs only – structural friction will carry out a process that is generally felling due to the lack of inertia and skill. As a result, millions of workers can face long-term unemployed periods while working to adapt.

Whether the passage of this passage will be dependent on the two critical factors: how the organizations have skills to establish the AI-based economy and go to roles in the eventual roles. Neither is fast enough. It should be a promotional call to prevent massive skills and eventually prevent unemployment.

The speed of tasks in AI replaces the tasks

Automation of jobs is nothing new. Mechanization of agriculture, rising installation lines and the arrival of computers displaced a large number of employees in different parts of history. However, former technological turns are often allowed to change the work system in adaptation and tandem. The Industrial Revolution was opened for decades; Digital revolution gave employees time to acquire new skills. AI, on the contrary, is progressing with an unprecedented speed.

Automation of cognitive assignments to AI is especially violated. Unlike the former waves of the mechanization, the AI, which is primarily affecting handicrafts, now replaces white collar employees, legal researchers, financial analysts and even input-level programmers. Golden man sachs In a global scale, the EU predicts the equivalent of 300 million full-time working days for automation in the coming years. Some professions can not disappear completely, but the AI ​​will reduce the need for human entry.

Kill the AI, predicted, in a linear way does not break the industries. Some sectors such as customer service and data entry – immediate and large-scale displacement. Others, such as law and health services, may be slow, more staged automation. However, when AI is skilled in every field, the loss of work can be fast.

Take the law industry. The AI-Powered Contract Review program can process thousands of documents per second by reducing the need for minor lawyers. In customer service, AI chatbots interact with millions by eliminating the need for human agents with human agents. The retail sector has done massive work due to self-testing systems and warehouse automation. Creating content with generative AI tools such as ChatGpt, translation and even marketing, low knowledge-based professions are immunity.

Slow speed of slow change for work systems and employee skills

The new technology, which works for old work systems, is usually a new technology that new technology can create less jobs than they first replace. When AI is submitted to an old business system, it simply resembles existing tasks, a call center that replaces human agents with chatbots – the structure of the work remains unchanged. Eliminating the need for ordinary, traditional workflows, the EU system completely redesigns the system. Instead of waiting for customers to call, the AI ​​could not reveal and resolve the needs of the services directly to the products, without revealing powerful products and the removal of the call center.

As a result, such as new jobs, such as AI trainers and user experience designers, this transformation is slower than the operation, create a painful lag where employees are left without an immediate alternative. Many of the many roles in which the EU will be created, data annotation, AI model control, Industrial specification of the Industrial specific training and specialized training and handicrafts.

There are restrictions in the Tech-Heavy areas, AI managed business growth. Although AI AI AI AUDIPERS and AI ethical consultants, these roles require specialized knowledge and are less than eliminated. Today, employees with advanced technical expertise have not been able to enjoy it so far. Both Ibm and Boston Consulting Group Guess that some technical IT skills are half a life of three years, today’s demand experience may be obsolete before drying in a complex certificate. Lifetime learning in this environment is no longer desirable; Career is a living strategy.

Consequences of transitional retaliation

The creation of this space and work between the displacement is the place where a real problem is located. Governments and corporations often believe that the result is short-term unemployment management, if new jobs emerge. But history offers otherwise. The rise of cars for example, external blacksmiths and transportation producers, but the automotive industry has created millions of businesses. Thousands of printing media on the Internet were expelled, but caused a boom in digital marketing, e-commerce and software. These passages, in a positive case in the growth of the work, did not threaten decades.

We estimate that the long-term incompatibility between working and creation of jobs and a large number of employees will lead to short-term spikes. We will most likely see the growing income inequality, because high-paid work will be concentrated among high-trained workers, and low-trained workers are low wages.

Economic transition periods were always celebrated with social and economic growth. In the United States, the reduction of coal mine, the automation of the production exterward shelter and installation lines, the waves of unemployment, regional economic collapse and populist policies have increased. AI can cause a similar disruption, but in a global scale and a faster pace. AI switch is similar, but in a charged graph. We need an awakening call and action to prevent potential consequences of this passage.

The ideas commented on Fortune.com are only the opinions of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and beliefs of luck.

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