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FT editor Roula Khalaf, chooses his favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.
We live in the first stages of the revolution – An attempt to turn into an arbitrary dictatorship of the United States. Donald Trump is still not clear whether it is successful in this attempt. But what he wants to do is self obvious. Its management will be the biggest impact on the United States – an illegal, unexpected, intellectual, nationalist. However, inevitably, taking a great impact on the rest of the world, taking into account the role of the United States since World War II. No other country or group of countries – or wants – to catch their place. This threatens the chaos of the revolution.
It is very early to know what exact results will happen. However, it is not yet quickly to make a loss of incredible and subsequent confidence created by the TRUUMMAN Tariff War, especially in some aspects. It was a loss of trust The subject of a podcast I recently made with Paul Krugman. Without projected policies, the market economy cannot work well. If uncertainty comes from Hegemon, the world economy will not work well as a whole.
At the end of Global economic prospects, The World Bank analyzed it only. The results are inevitably temporary, but the direction of travel should be correct. At the end of May, the tariffs begin to remain on the horizon of the forecast. This can be very optimistic or very pessimistic. No one knows, maybe not a trump. In this context, the judges have been expected to have a total increase in global growth since 2026-27 since 2026-27 since 2026-27 in 2026-27 in 2009 and 2020. 3.1 percent. “
All this is bad enough. However, the risks appear very much from the negative side. Thus, the uncertainty created by the Trump’s commercial war can lead to a decrease in trade and investment than predicted. Of course, there will be difficult to trust any probable “transactions”. Again, low growth will increase social, political and financial fragments, so it increases the feeling of risk in the markets. It can create a suffering loop with increased risk and higher costs to reduce growth. Personal and public weak borrowers can be managed as a standard. Strikes from natural disasters or conflict also suffer more economically.
Can be imagined above. Many, bold, trusting new trading deals can be obtained. EU-fairy-powder can create an increase in global productivity and investment in the field of investment. Also, everything can simply calm down. One difficulty for this is that today’s Trump shock comes with almost two decades of shock: global and eurozone financial crises; pandemic; Pandemic inflation; and the Ukrainian-Russian war. Animal spirits had to be impaired.
Unfortunately, the world’s chief economist of the World Bank Worldmit Gill, “the poorest countries will suffer the most.” “By 2027, the entrance to the head of the High Gold Economy GDP is where it is expected to be before Kovid-19 pandemics. However, developing economies would be worse, the GDP level per capita is 6 percent.” With the exception of China, these countries may be in two decades to return the losses of 2020.
This is not as a result of the last blows. Thus, the growth of developing economies is reduced in three decades in three decades – in the 2000s, 5.9 percent in the 2000s, from 5.1 percent to 3.7 percent in 2010. ” In 2010, in 2010, in 2010, in the 2000s, in the 2000s, the average of 5.1 percent of 5.1 percent from 4.1 percent to increase from 4.1% to 4.1 percent. This time debt is collected. In a long run, it will not help insist that Trump’s climate change is a myth.
So what do you need to do? First, liberalize trade. Developing countries have been liberalized in recent years, most of them still have higher tariffs than high-income economies. Targeted baby-industrial promotion can work. However, if there is a country’s less international arms, it remains one of the best policies, to attract investment, improving human capital and protect economic stability. In a bad environment, this is now more important than Becign.
Option for great forces – China, AB, Japan, India, England and others – are more complicated. First, they also need to develop their own policies as much as possible. It is also necessary to cooperate not in trade, but to continue global rules. Some powers should actually accept this global imbalance, not on trade policy, but also a really important issue, despite global macroeconomic imagements.
This is generally more. As the other is withdrawn from the history of the United States, others are greatness. Progress in the solution of climate change and the problems of economic development depends on these powers. A better way to solve excessive debts, such as needed. Requires today’s trend to go to each other’s larger doubt.
It is possible – it is likely that we are witnessing that we are witnessing to make a lot of effort to promote more prosperity and cooperative world. Some people will say that such an end will only sign a healthy “realism”. But it would be stupid: we share a planet; So our destiny are mixed together. This inevitably made modern technology. We are in the turning point: We need to choose a smart.
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