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This month has signed trade deals with England India, USA and Eu. At a time concerned about the prospects of world trade, it must be less depression about the outlook for Britain. However, the deals are better than none of them, even a cheery.
The US contract will simply limit the losses made by Donald Trump’s Commercial War, which is just unfounded in the faithful ally. This does not have a bilateral trade surplus in the goods. The other two are marginal liberalizations. In general, Britain’s trade opportunities were condemned by Brexit and now that Trump’s commercial war is less than in 2016.
Any improvement at market entrance may seem something good. But it can’t be good enough, because the deals are very small or performance is very weak. “Perfect Storm: British trade, weak growth and a new geopolitical momentAnton Spisak, published by the European Reform Center last week, took the last story.
Between 2019 and 2024, the volume of England trade has increased in a complex annual rate. This reached 4.9 percent earned between 4.9 percent, between 1980 and 2008, and 4.9 percent earned between 2008-19. The reduction rate in growth increased since the financial crisis of France, Germany, EU, Japan and the United States and the pandemic. However, between 2019 and 2024, England’s growth was low – 0.7 percent for France, 1.9 percent for Germany, 1.9 percent of the EU, and 1.4 percent in the United States and 20 percent in the United States. For a great economy, for example, England, this poor trading performance is really worried.
Not surprisingly, exports, for the first time in decades, instead of contributing to this, the net should be dragged due to the economic growth of England. Thus, between 2020 and 2024, the average economic growth of exports was a minus figure 0.4 percentage.
This terrible performance was managed by what was managed by the export of goods, however, the performance of goods exports to the EU, which was 19 percent lower during this period, was the same as exported to the rest of the world, which is 20 percent below. It is really amazing that exports fell into a very similar extent to the EU and the rest of the world. Fair explanation, chains given by the EU broke, and it violated the competitiveness of England goods in third markets.
Whatever the reasons, this poor performance, continues, reduce the economic growth in an abducted, at least miss the effect of productivity. Unfortunately, it’s just an element that can only bring an element, perhaps a significant improvement in trading activities. This is the decision of the United States To keep 10 percent of tariffs in most English exports. Last Friday, Trump has even offered the EU 50 percent total tariffs in US exports. Before this month, He also accepted 30 percent of the tariff in China.
Such an open discrimination violates the most basic principle of the world trade organization. Again, this situation can be useful to England. However, there can be two very large warnings to optimism. One is that this relatively affordable relationship can change many times. The other is even 10 percent of tariffs About four times higher than US tariffs It was used before the presidential period. Thus, the United States in the UK will be a great disadvantage in a position in a favorable position in the United States, perhaps China and the EU (and maybe the EU).
Moreover Agreement with the EU will not change the situation in trade, albeit to any extent. The main exception is a contract to work with an agreement to ensure the EU “vast majority” of AGRIFOOD exports to take place without a verification and certificate of the EU. Again, in the end, England does not intend to be rich by expanding the export of farm products.
Then the thing we see, trade performance is an economy that is above all, above goods. This reflects the main loss of competitiveness and dynamism. The possible answer would be deeper integration with the EU. The more important, it is still, to focus on all the attention to strengthen the basic bases of economic performance for an unfriendly world.
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