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Can India be a hedge against trade wars and tariffs?


The fluid windows are displayed in a store in a store outside New Delhi on April 3, 2025.

Money Sharma | AFP | Getty pictures

This report is from CNBC’s “India” newsletter, which is in a timely, deep news and market description to large enterprises behind the advanced powerful news and meteoric rise. You can subscribe here.

The great story

With the rest of the world, the American Trade War interventures methodologies to shake long-term alliances, breaking global supply chains and compatible levels of mutual tariffs. Add another entry to the Economic Dogma list that is spread by US President Donald Trump’s duties: Safe Haven investment idea.

Historically, the United States has intensified and treasury prices gathered because investors have begun to receive assets that need to be safe during financial turmoil.

It seems not over.

Several new patterns have emerged in the market since April 2, “Freedom Day” and several new patterns appeared, and indicate that investors watched India as a hedge with a potential flow in trade flows.

Although India’s stock exchanges, currencies and bonds – not a perfect size of the new trend, this year has prevailed this year’s US capital, dollars and treasures.

Indian capital has been less variable than asian peers.

Analysts say that a major behind the actions was the relatively insulated economy that India had previously discussed Last week “inside India

Morgan Stanley shows that only 12% of India’s economy depends on the export of goods. In addition, the export of goods to the United States consists of a smaller proportion – 2.1% of GDP. Both remove pharmaceutical imports and energy and energy from the tariff, and the tariff effective goods are only 1.7% of India’s GDP.

Upasana Chachra, Wall Street Bank President India’s economist will be exposed to the United States among India’s economies and “the direct effect of higher tariffs compared to export demand,” he said.

The country also demonstrates the qualities that can see that it develops in a future developing market safety.

For example, the Indian economy is less than exported compared to the consumer managed and less developed market economy. According to experts, this is relatively well insulating from outside shocks, such as trade wars.

Chart visualization

Meanwhile, more than five in the capital market is local. Internal investors – regularly filled with billions Systematic investment plans – Typically, during the events that increase the volatility, protect their active prices from the whims of foreign investors.

“The heads of the capital market of India are decided in the most part of the most part,” he said.

Morgan Stanley’s last descent, global growth slowed up before the concerns slowed with a large part of India, he said. It seems like a reverse relationship between global growth and the vibration of India, which is beneficial to the Indian economy.

India imported $ 277 billion worth of fuel in 2022. This year, the country was 38% of all imports. World Bank Information.

“Slow global growth causes reducing global commodity prices, because it is clear in decrease in the terms of trade for India (because India is a net commodity importer.” CHACHRA added.

Long landing in the stock exchange, which previously and highly assessments of the US presidential election, reduced more stock prices to more levels.

“India has the most negative (profit) adjustments in developing and developed markets, except for the Indonesian Redman,” he said.

Analysts, MSCI Development Markets reduced their earnings for 60% of companies in the Indian index of companies in the Asia Index.

This, perhaps he offered a floor for the stock prices and leaked outstanding global markets in recent weeks.

Investors to the question, maybe they ask themselves whether these trends are likely to remain here or the world will return to his old paths?

You should know

Inflation in India is cooling. India’s annual inflation rate is a 3.34% expected in MarchThe Ministry of Statistics and Program Ministry of Internalization was reported on Tuesday. The reading fell for the fifth month fifth and fell from 3.61% in February, because food prices softened up to grow. Economists surveyed by Reuters waited to read 3.6%

The plant’s production of India is slow down. The industrial production index measuring the factory activity increased sharply in January by increasing by 5.2% in January and increased by 2.9% in February. They slow down in the manufacturing and mining sectors According to the implementation of the Indian Ministry of Statistics and the program, he contributed to the decline.

Apple accelerates iPhone shipments from India. Cupertino-based company in March Exported 600 tons of iphoneAccording to a Reuters report, from India to the United States, Until the United States from the United States to the United States to the United States to the United States to the United States from the United States to the United States, “mutual tariffs” in the United States. Accordingly, the main suppliers of Apple in India Foxconn and Tata, lived an increase in the export values ​​that month.

What happened in the markets?

Indian shares are in course for the best weekly performance since July 2022. The one Oily 50 The index is up to 4% this week, but the benchmark is still reduced by 1.3% this year.

The assessment fell to the lowest level of 10-year Indian government bonds, 6.38% in the last week, 6.38%, and since 2021.

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This week, Singapore High Commissioner, Singapore High Commissioner, Singapore, Singapore, Singapore, I look forward to three or four sites in India, “he said Build new industrial cities. Added that the Indian government is “in the leading stages of negotiations with Sembcorp on these fronts.

Meanwhile, Chryscapital management partner Kunal Shroff noted that India develops primary public sacrifices can rely more to the inner support Compared to ten years ago by the market by foreign institutional investors.

What happens next week?

Flash Procurement Managers will cover the index data for many countries on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump’s tariff ads immediately in the weeks.

April 18: Japan’s consumer price index for March, the main price of the Chinese and five-year loan

April 23: Flash for India HSBC PMI AprilUS S & P Global PMI, Jibun Bank PMI Flash for April, Euro Region HCOB PMI Flash for April, England S & P Global PMI Flash for April



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