China ends for two sessions to increase financial deficit

China is expected to be an important softener in the domestic demand next week. Very anticipated details about financial stimulum The United States is intended to follow the growth in the face of trade tension.

The annual parliamentary collection of the country known as the “two sessions” begins with the political advisory conference of the Chinese people – the best advice body – the meeting of the legislative body, the National People’s Congress.

The meeting lasted about a week in recent years and is usually held a press conference with the heads of the Foreign Minister and economic departments.

At the opening meeting of the NPC on Wednesday, Beijing’s annual consumer price is expected to reconsider about 2% of inflation target – the lowest with more than two decades According to the Asian Society Policy Institute, 3% or higher in previous years.

Marks a secret recognition of modest domestic demand.

The purpose of the new inflation will move as a ceiling than a target. China is under deflation pressure growing more slowly than the seventh flat quarter in the last quarter of 2024, slower than a nominal GDP growing more slowly than genuine GDP Larry Hu, Macquarie’s President China Economist, said in a note. Consumer prices In 2024, only 0.2% rose and 2023while The manufacturer has prices decreased for more than two years.

“Our thesis for this year will be insistent,” Robin Xing, Robin Xing, Morgan Stanley, this month of CNBC will try to take a new approach, but … they will try a new one. “

Xing, until the second half of Beijing, when economic slowdown is more widespread, is less likely to increase incentives to the second half of the year. He noted that the announcements stimulated in September were more than a year after the deflectionary trends.

Investors watched their efforts to slow Beijing to slow down the country to eliminate the country’s economic slowdown after the unexpected and high level. Support collateral in September asked for a stock rally. Sunday earnings re-collected after Chinese President Leaving the xi caught The rare meeting with entrepreneurs last week Alibaba’s Jack Ma and Deepseek, including Liang Wenfeng.

On Wednesday, Beijing, 4% of budget deficit GDP, above 3% in 2024, reflects Macquarie’s HU, total market expectations.

“It would not be” meaningful turn “because politicians have not wanted to break the limit of 3% (deficit) for many years,” he said.

He also expects 3 trillion yuhana ($ 410 billion in 1 trillion yuan ($ 410 billion) in 2024 this year, and 3.9 trillion yuan will increase the annual quota to 4.5 trillion yuan.

On Wednesday, China’s GDP GDP goal goal is expected to increase in the same two years in the last two years. This would be in line with the previously announced target of XI By 2020, by 2020, the size of the economy is about twice.

But the analysts, Given the uncertainty of trade tensions around the trade tension at the beginning of the US-sustainable technological restrictions, US President Donald Trump increased the tariffs on Chinese goods by 10% and More tasks may come on April 2.

This will be exported in a rare bright way in China’s economy.

“March is very early for any major policy stimulus because police need more time to see the real effects of the trade war.” Macquarie’s hu. “Their track record does not miss the growth of GDP, but they do not want to overpred. At this point, they will keep their cards close to the chest.”

Coincides with high-profile meetings in Beijing Exit of Trump at the joint meeting of the Congress On March 4, the US President can go on the agenda and goals throughout the year.

The world’s second largest economy Increased by 5% in 2024Retail growth in 2023 in 2023 has dropped from 7.4% to 3.4%. The real estate driver continued with investments in the sector last year last year.

“We think that the government’s” consumption of “the consumption of” increasing consumption “is the best policy in the NPC meeting,” Tao Wang, The Chinese economist, in the UBS investment bank, said in a note.

China has tried to increase consumption using trade subsidies in trade to promote the purchases of selected goods. Authorities in January Expanded the trading program Include smartphones and more home appliances, with details related to subsidy support in two sessions.

With a larger budget deficit, Beijing may have more than the size of the consumer trade program, and subsidies may have more than 300 billion cubic meters, he said.

He subsidized the government’s families with young children, and increase their concerns about income concerns about income to the insurance program for government residents.

At the upcoming meeting, China is expected to broadcast spending plans for defense and technological development for the year before China.

Beijing priorities to start clearing their priorities to develop the next half of this fall “five-year plans. “Current ends this year.

The Chinese Communist Party has not had a traditional space for two sessions, sharp policies. Instead, direction parameters usually occur in higher level party meetings, for example The third plenum was held in July of the last 2024.

Last week, the meeting with entrepreneurs Xi’s meeting and new politics to support the private sector and Foreign Investment Celebrate the first part of the changes made after the third plenum, Markus Herrmann Chen, co-founder and managing director of the Chinese macro group. “Symbol, this is followed by a quick and good start of reforms and leaves a signal in Beijing’s pipelines,” he said.

In an appendix offered to the law, China would prohibit the penalty collection of ads from enterprises, State media reported this week.

A sign of how the enterprises fought a number of payments, the local governments of the massacre in the mass of massively asked companies pay back taxes In the operations in 1994.

The new law, “fixed legal expectations”, “Stable Legal Expectations”, Bruce Pang, Agunct Associate Professor, Associate Professor Associate Professor. At the parliamentary session, it is waiting for new measures to help increase investment opportunities for non-governmental enterprises and to help finance small-tech companies and financing.

Many analysts also saw a strong signal in the last week’s meeting of Tech entrepreneurs and a reconciliation of an adjustable appointment in Internet companies.

Shows that “,”, “he is ready to ensure the regulation of the head of innovations, the head of innovations, the head of the International Exploration Department,” he said.

Chinese Proxy to fight corruption of government officials The heads of illegal conduct in state-owned companies continue to continue. More than 40 people were removed as representatives of the National People’s Congress, mainly the claims of corruption Since the current period began in 2023According to CNBC calculations Official figures.