China is holding cards in US Tariff Stand-Off

The United States and China, Donald Trump’in Donald Trump with a vacation with a vacation with Tat-Tat explosion, the US and China are locked in the US and China Hazardous Trade Stand.

China is almost an invaluable market for the goods produced by the United States, but experts should not assess Washington’s power to counteract Trump’s compulsory tactics.

Virtual odd-strange, Beijing, including a combination of centralized political control, increasingly diversified export markets and rare land metals, has a very spoken power. The question can use its arm without having more harm.

Trade power

China had about $ 300 billion worth of commercials with China with about 15 percent of the United States last year. Trump’s tariffs 145 percent would give a significant pain in Beijing.

However, international economists said this was deprived of an important truth: China can replace imports easier from the United States.

The U.S. rising to China, pays great attention to agriculture – is like sorrowing, cotton, beef and poultry – and thus it is low value. Many imports of the United States – electronic, machine and some processed minerals – opposite.

In New York City University, the International Economic Professor March Bengoa, in the United States and Chinese trade, this was the latest residue on the US.

“The United States is higher than China, because China can replace agricultural products easier, electronics and cars from elsewhere,” he said. “Beijing has already buys colds from Brazil, for example, China has a little more goal in the end of it.”

This Dollar Made the United States more expensive to import goods.

The pain of the trade war will be felt in parts of the United States, the escalation and semiconductors, including the importance of greater products and semiconductors – Although Washington restricts plugs in recent years. Many American enterprises have been included in land chains in the country.

Goldman Sachs analysts estimated that 10mn-20mn employees were exported to us in China. “The United States is expected to form significant pressure on the Chinese economy and labor market, a combination of extremely high US tariffs and a sharp decline in the United States,” he said.

Strategic ‘backdoor’

China tried to reduce its credibility to Chinese consumers for Chinese consumers in 2018 and 2018 in 2018 and 2019 in 2018 and 2019. The share of US imports in 2016, 13.4 percent of 21 percent, US government information, resulted in Beijing’s trade.

At the same time, China’s production capacity has used cheaper labor of Chinese manufacturers, and is re-established through US tariffs vietnam and Cambodia as Southeast Asia. Exports to Vietnam in March increased by 17 percent, The information was broadcast this week showed.

Trump is how determined to close the “back door” for Chinese exports. Vietnam, this Now $ 124 billion trading surplus works In connection with the United States, “mutual” was threatened by 46 percent tariff – though, this was suspended for 90 days.

The French Investment Bank was reported to breathe a few breaths in the Asia-Pacific, Asia-Pacific, Asia-Pacific, Bruegel’s meditation tank. “It is mainly to the 90-day way to understand things.”

However, even if China’s exports are a stern cessation, García Herrero said China would not affect China’s prosperous economy. The country’s GDP grew by 5 percent last year, 1.5% of this was taken from itself Nearby – $ 1TN global trading surplus.

“China is an affordable economy,” he said.

However, analysts can also strike to try to redirect the excessive power to alternative markets, including countries between China, EU, India and the Global South.

“I would expect China to load the potential of other countries,” said Alex Capri, Singapore National University, Singapore University.

Financial holdings

China enjoys the use of more Large stack of US government debt This can sell to reduce exposure to the theory. This, in turn, may have concerns about the attractiveness of the US assets and more decreasing shame in the value of US government debt.

The head of the Asian Credit Strategy Zerlina Zeng said that the sale of a sales in the field of treasures will strike China, taking into account the size of the holding.

“He said that China will continue to diversify the US dollar-denomination resources as a long-term separation of other currencies,” he said.

Critical minerals

The United States also trusts China for many rare land metals that are important for modern production, as in the batteries of electric vehicles. More than two-thirds of Beijing global land production and more than 90 percent of the processing power – a critical result.

Trump, the first round of “mutual” tariffs was exhausted by critical minerals in the confession of US sensitivity. However, this type of refusal, if China enters, may not be enough to prevent the supply crisis.

Chinese Placed export control Last week, including seven rare land elements, including jet engines and houses such as the necessary substances, including the dysprocium and terbium.

Autocracy on democracy

If the Chinese Communist Party is not immune to the swing in the public opinion, it is less jet from the White House, the lesser jet is less than the White House, which has already been forced to respond to the threat of prices.

Alfredo Montufar-Helu, Beijing, Beijing, Pekin, Beijing, Pekin, Beijing, Pekin, Beijing in New York, said he entered greater opportunities to stimulate the economy.

The Chinese government has more goals to manage the domestic market as an indicator of social stability and economic feelings. Beijing intervened in the market in recent weeks “National Team” government agencies Driving coordinated actions to support stock prices.

However, the Chinese government is also sensitive to the demonstrations of public dissatisfaction. In the late 2022, shortly after the protests in large cities, the three-year Covid-19 restrictions were raised shortly.

“The market reaction, I would say the United States at the moment (more it hurts),” Chief China Economist Julian Evans-Pritchard added in the capital’s economy. “The United States is more under pressure to arrive at the table and negotiate.”

But the first shaking of a commercial war – as sailing from the wide ports of China To feed openly open dissatisfaction In the southern production provinces of China.

“I did not meet one person, even manufacturers, even manufacturers, the tariff that accused Beijing,” said a foreign producer in Guangdong province. “The mood I see is a kind of disobedience. I think that the government is playing it is now on the national pride. “

Additional report by Chan Ho-on in Hong Kong; Information visualization in London by Alan Smith