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Shenzhen, China – April 12: A woman, Sam’s Club Membership Warehouse and Shenzhen on April 12, 2025, China walks with a intense intersection in front of a McDonald’s restaurant on 2025.
Cheng Xin | Getty Images News
Sky-high tariffs are trying to help selling the country to sell the domestic market to the domestic market for the United States for Chinese goods – a movement that threatens the world’s second largest economy to a deeper deflation.
Local Chinese governments and large enterprises express support to help the tariff-hitting exporters produce products to the domestic market. Jd.com, Tencent In China, the application of Tiktok’s sister is one of the electronic trade giants that promote sales of these goods to Chinese consumers.
Sheng Qiuping, Minister of Vice Trade, A statement Last month, China called on the wide range of foreign shocks, calling for foreign shocks, exports and efforts to strengthen exports and consumption.
“The side effect is a violent price war among Chinese companies,” he said.
For example, 200 billion yuan ($ 28 billion) were pledged to help exporters and first set up a special section for the goods designed for US buyers, up to 55% discounts.
The flow of discounted goods for the US market, as well as the profitability of companies, which in turn can take it on employment. Uncertain work prospects And concerns about income stability have already contributed to a weak consumer demand.
After zero in 2023 and 2024, the consumer price index slipped in a negative area Two straight moon in February and March. The manufacturer price index fell month 29 consecutive In March, it reduces the steep landing for four months, from 2.5% to the clock per year.
When the trade war dismantles export orders, the deflation of China’s wholesale prices will deepen in April to 2.8% in April. from 2.5% in MarchAccording to an economist group in Morgan Stanley. “We believe that the tariff impact will be the most acute in this quarter, because many exporters have stopped their production and transportation to the United States”
For full year, Chinese economist, Goldman Sachs, is waiting for China’s CPI to 0% 0.2% annual increase in 2024and PPI will decrease by 1.6% Drop 2.2% last year.
“Prices must fall to win the prices for our prices to fall into domestic and other foreign buyers,” he said to absorb the supply behind US importers. ”
Goldman projects China’s real general domestic product will increase only 4.0% this year, even as China established Growth target for 2025 “About 5%“
Live Game
US President Donald Trump removes tariffs for imported Chinese goods this year In a century is the highest level125% Want to be Beijing to retaliate with extra money collections. Tariffs in such prohibited levels were seriously approached between the two countries.
Download Beijing’s US Tariffs Download Goods Uploaded goods downloaded by the goods they downloaded, stopgap measures can be more than anything else, Beijing Basique Investment Bank Chanson & Co.
The United States market has increased Chinese exporters, weak domestic demand, price wars, razor, and increased the strains by increasing paid margins, payment delays and high income rates.
“For exporters who can download higher prices at a higher price of American consumers, it is a way to cleanse the unsold inventory and short-term cash flows sold in China’s domestic market,” he said. “There is little space for profit,” he said.
Squeezed edges can force each other’s shop to close each other’s shop, while others can only refuse to stop the factories.
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As the firm is closed or scaled back operations, the drop will be poured into the labor market. Goldman Sachs’ Shan estimates that more than 2% of China’s workforce participated in the production of border goods.
Trump leadership last week He finished the freedom of “De Minimis” This allows Chinese e-commerce companies to send low-valuable parents to the United States without paying tariffs, like shein and temp.
“The elimination of the rules of minimis and cash flow accuses many small and medium enterprises in the direction of bankruptcy of many small and medium-sized enterprises,” he said.
Urban evaluates unemployment rate to increase 5.7% of average this year Official 5.5% TargetWang said.
Beijing stimulus catches the power of fire
In the last few years, exports helped China’s investment and consumption, the government’s finances and the government’s financing and straining the banking sector.
The property sector combined with US tariffs, “the economy is faced with two main drags”, “the two major drags” Lu, Nomura, said the risks, the risk “more bad demand than expected.”
Despite the mounting challenges for a stronger stimulus, many economists, beijing, will probably expect to wait for the specific signs of economic deterioration before exposed to financial firefighter.
“Authorities do not accept low prices as a bumper to support households of households during the economic transition,” the Eurasian group said.
When a potential impact of growing competition in China’s market, Peking University, Professor Justin Yifu Lin, said that Beijing could use finance, money and other target policies to increase the power of purchase.
“The faces of the United States are larger than China,” he said in Mandarin, which was translated by CNBC on April 21. The Lin is the dean of the Institute of New Structure Economy.
The current tariff is waiting to be resolved soon, but did not share a certain period of time. While maintaining China production opportunities, Lin, USA or two people, to reshore the production of the United States, said American consumers will be hit at higher prices in the interval.
– CNBC’s Evelyn Cheng contributed to this story.
