In his mind, President Trump, his colleagues are always a four-dimensional dehymaker. However, in the Real World Trade War, Trump showed his strongest opponent and revealed some restrictions.
As a result of mass confusion in the Trump and financial markets, a few weeks of manic tariff activities have finally clarified: Although Trump wants America to reset the entire trading system, The real target is Chinese.
Through April 9, Trump applied new tariffs to imports from almost every country, additional import taxes in certain product categories including cars, steel and aluminum. No one did not give a respite.
As the financial markets square, Trump has finally been finally supported by the most “mutual” tariffs of the country for at least 90 days, and finally supported by early July. The outstanding exception is Chinese, even higher tariffs that receive most treatments.
Trump tariff for Chinese imports is now 145%, about 6%, in the average of Trump, and taught Trump, and taught the sightseeing in the world’s 2nd economy. The tariff rate is so high that Heidi Crebo-Rediker, the State Department in the General Labor Council “English is an effective blockade”.
Leaves China with a unique controversial situation with Trump. China has more aggressively revenge than US trading partners against Trump tariffs, including many, including all of them, and offered to make discounts instead.
Chinese tariffs to American goods Now increased by 125%, 84% Friday and Beijing took other measures to punish American affairs. China’s rhetoric, with everyone, the Ministry of Commerce, China’s “Will fight to the end,” he said.
If China can prevent a trade war, but undoubtedly, President Xi Jinpring is undoubtedly a proud country to lead Trump’s trade violence. XI and His personnel also see the people with China as a parity and perhaps the outside are a unique super power. Xi preached a Self-confident national In recent years and it should be very good for a trade war with Trump, it is crushed as a Chinese going to an economic greatness.
Xi has some advantages. For one thing, Trump’s tariffs are not in Chinese exporters, but not in the first exporter of the first damage, but also for American enterprises and consumers. Tariffs reduce stock prices for prospects for future earnings and raising costs for enterprises. Chinese exporters also harm the prices of tariffs, as the price of tariffs effectively enhances the price of American receivers, or other providers are looking for other providers or simply receives less. However, the US exchange felt the damage first, because the stock prices are the forecast of future economic developments – now in which markets are considered bad.
The investor’s losses managed by Trump’s unilateral tariff movements are an obstacle to how much Trump can go. “If President Trump, if the capital falls, Tom Lee, the joint founder of the investment company, said on the April 7 briefing on the sale of the stock market. Trump, on April 9, closed the reciprocal tariffs, the S & P 500 index decreased by 20% from the summit, and the month market was put into CUSP. Thus, 20% of the exchange values can be a size of Trump’s pain limit.
Trade. Left, President Donald Trump, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Mexican President Claudia Sheenbaum (AP Photo) ·Associated Press
This waterfall starts in stock prices, starting a disturbing side effect: Sweeping in the bond market. Bond product – interest rates – Investors sold by investors who sell stocks usually fall on the stock market as normal. Demand for treasures, while reducing interest rates, the bond prices are pushing and investors require them.
However, on April 4, April 9, the US TRESSASURY, if it falls normally, a quarter of the percentage increased by more than four. At the same time, the cost of the dollar fell into an abnormally large amount against the euro and other currencies, which can continue an irregular sale of disorders with terrible consequences of the US potential.
Added to Trump’s pressure. “The spike in 10 and 30 years of treasure is the most recent point of pressure for these tariffs for 90 days,” said Crebo-Rediker.
Investors think that suddenly the United States can cause the US interest rates to manage US interest rates, which can freezing interest rates, which can freezing credit markets. The credit crisis is worse than the stock market generally, because if liquidity can affect the liquidity companies, especially if it is fast, must pay their bill. Credit crisis and frozen liquidity 2008 Housing helped to turn the bust into a financial accident It was almost a depression.
China has about $ 760 billion worth $ 760 billion, which is 2.6% of the total market debt in the United States. Sharing was rejected in recent years, and it is probably not enough to give a weapon as a weapon against Trump in a trade war for China. China will suffer from any credit crisis that hit the United States, which will suffer from a credit crisis that can prevent the ability of many nations to receive Chinese exports at the current levels.
But the only size of the US debt will be larger to push the trump to reduce the size and deficit funded tax – a weakness may not be counted when the Trumpi trafficking war begins. The higher the tariffs, the higher the US economy will be harmed and likely to increase foreign investors to put pressure on volume. China sees it and Trump now showed the possibility of a loan crisis.
Autocracy, which has no need to deal with the elections, can stand political pain longer than XI, Trump. But China has weaknesses. Trump tariffs will harm many Chinese enterprises and damage the general Chinese economy if they stay in place for a long time. XI is strong, but not always decisive and there is no clear way where it is outside.
“It can be more pain or return or return and may be back and may seem weak for both foreign opponents, but also internal audiences. Recently wrote in foreign policy. “In both cases, it is compressed here.”
Trump says he wanted to negotiate with trade partners, but he also showed interest ““US and Chinese economy”After 25 years of deep integration. This process can start and Trump has a word, it can be irreversible.
By narrowing the center of the commercial war to China, Trump can be a maternal sources that there is no wasting. China will not be able to win a trade war, but of course it can be an enemy who causes a lot of damage and knows where it goes.
Rick is a high corneler for Newman Yahoo Finance. Follow him Bluesky and X: @rickjnewman.
