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Pedestrians, on July 9, 2024, walk along a street in Beijing’s central workplace.
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China’s government bond productivity is not a sign of reflection of the latest riba, but economists and deflation pressure are expected to lower debt costs.
Sent a vital sale in China’s government bonds Increased productivity in recent weeksThe People’s Bank of China has established liquidity from the money market to stabilize the currency from the money market and asked for funds to transform the sudden rise in Deepseek.
Evaluation 10 years of productivity earned more than 30 points From historical feelings in January This week, 2% to hit psychological levels, have not been seen since December.
“The market’s optimism is ahead of reality,” he said.
The consumer is still anemic, near the record discount and the credit requirement from households and corporations.
New home loans were only 54.7 billion yuan ($ 7.5 billion) in January-February Information released by PBOC. Larry Hu, Larry Hu, wanting to restore the housing market in Macquarie, noted the lowest level in the same period in the last two decades.
Debt expenses are in a wider economy – usually moves in Tandem with the productivity of the government bond – probably “lower”, Jason Pang, Asia, JP Morgan Asset Manager manager of the Asset Manager.
While waiting for the investment bank to remain “fits”, the Investment Bank “Tariff Hedgehog” is waiting for trading for trade between 1.65% between 1.65%.
Cheap loans
Chinese commercial banks, noting that Beijing wanted not to spend money, was looking for customers with a record low-interest loans. People chose to demolish the money as the prospects of income growth and reduced the wealth of the rising households in a very stretching apartment market.
Household deposits have doubled since 2018, and banks have repeatedly reduced deposit rates for about 151 trillion yuan last year. In the first two months this year, Household deposits have increased 6.13 trillion yuan.
National Financial Regulatory Department last week Banks called for expanding the issuance of personal consumer loans and “reasonable” credit limits and interest rates.
Shanghai, China: On July 18, 2007 in Shanghai, China’s customer in a branch of the Ningbo bank on the eve of IPO.
Mark Ralston | AFP | Getty pictures
Several regional banks across the country have evaluated cheap consumer loans Up to 2.58% – dramatic drop Therefore the loan ratio is over 4.36% in May 2022 Information from the Rong360 Institute of Digital Technology.
Credit rates, probably the credit requirement, the chief of the Chinese macro strategy in the standard charter bank, the head of the “deflation pressure is still deepening”, Becky Liu said.
Liu expects a total of 1.4% to the end of this year, because the central bank further pushs the growth to further growth.
Deflation strip
Beijing has increased the highest policy priority of local consumption this year, as China is preparing for the updated trade war with the United States behind the return of Donald Trump to the White House.
New tariffs put in Chinese goods have already taken In the increase in the country’s exports.
China’s consumer price inflation in February fell into negative area For the first time, the manufacturer’s price deflation lasts for more than two years.
In the first two months of the year, excluding volatile substances such as food and energy, it predicted a total of 0.3%, Macquarie’s estimates that this will celebrate the longest deflation zone since 1993.
If (China) continues to slow down the economy or flashing the Fed, the expectation of a ratio cut will revive and the bond product may fall again.
Larry Hu
Chinese economist in Macquarie
To be sure, “low interest rates are just enough to spark the revival in consumer lending, only low interest rates.”
The majority of Chinese households are in property, but the crisis hit sector is still struggling to find a floor. New home prices 4.8% fell in February A year ago, it was invested in the development of real estate Year declined by 9.8% in the first two months.
Yuan focus
This year, a rally in the US government’s debt has sent a low productivity to an invalid economy on the effects of influence. This, in turn, narrowed the gap between the US Bond Product and the gap between the relevant Chinese debts.
The main source of weakness in Yuan, the United States came to the United States, which is higher than bond productive. The last market movements that see the US bond productivity, as China bonds increased, reduced the low pressure in Risen’s yuan.
It should be noted that when reaching the three-month lower, the product gap was significant at 230 main points on the 230th point by LSEG, according to LSEG.
“Risk for a strong RMB is near,” he said. Expand the bonds further This is maintained in the balance sheet and rising productivity in China’s long-term bonds.
“This can create partial flexibility in trade (a), despite the 20% tariff for the market, it will not only devalue RMB, and at the same time understand the permits of yuan humility,” he said.
China Sea Yuan, after hitting a 16-month low in January, remained in the US dollar in recent weeks. The last time was traded in 7,2478 against Greenback. As in November, this was weakened by US President Donald Trump over 2% since the election victory.
PBOC has protected the benchmark 7-day reverse repo rate has not changed since September1.5% seizes 1.5% and expectations to reduce rates to stimulate the economy of the Central Bank. Authorities have repeatedly pointed out this year this year, but they have not yet passed.
This Federal reserve in the decision closely followed by Wednesday Benchmark drew a line when reduced to show that the reduction will be later.
“If (China) continues to slow down the economy, or the expectation of the Fed will restart, and the ratification will be restarted and the bonds can fall again,” said Macquarie’s Hu.
