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Buyers Hermes International Sca, Beijing, China, 1 May 2025, on May 1, 2025, passes a Hermes store managed by Hermes International Sca.
Na Bian | Bloomberg | Getty pictures
China’s latest push-ups are concerned about the optimalism of the economic deterioration policy, which is expected to grow with more stimulation measures, is focused on trade talks with the United States
Coverage of the stimulus package, a comparison, including interest rate reduction and large liquidity injections Sweep policy in last September This increased a market rally raised by more than 32% of the CSI 300 index in the 6-day-winning strip.
But the story was not repeated this time. The benchmark index liked the announcement day so far, added a total of 0.61% and rose about the same Thursday. Hong Kong’s suspension won less than 0.4% in two days.
According to the analysts, along with concerns about the ongoing trade war in the world’s second largest economy, the markets, markets are mainly prior to the briefing.
People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng Announced on Wednesday To cut the main policy ratios 10 key points and reduce the amount of cash to be held with 50 main points of banks. Among the events, the pan, the Central Bank will set up valid prices for the return of technological related bonds and the consumption of elderly and the consumption of elderly.
The stimulus was mainly based on economic priorities set at the Polituro meeting last month. It was “nothing more than a stopgap instead of a solution,” said Neo Wang, his economist and an evermort of an evermorty.
Politburo, China’s second strongest political body, last month He called on local authorities to prepare For “worst scenarios” for enough planning, active finance and accelerated execution of money policy. In addition, support for the technology sector plans to increase internal consumption when stabilizing exports.
The central government has acknowledged without the concrete note of the tariffs “strengthened the impact of the effects of foreign blows.”
When PBOC, PBOC, PBOC is open to stock exchanges and direct funding for investment and sharing, the incentive is more targeted in industry and social needs, which is the head of the Chinese capital strategy in the Macquarie capital Eugene Hsiao.
For a meaningful rally, investors are waiting for the financial measures that further increase the statements of HSSAO, which increases more effective plans to increase consumer feelings and prepare the real estate sector.
Economic strains
Chinese politicians owning the country’s early economic information, which has suddenly stimulus measures have been spreading to the economy’s early strains.
“China responds to the slowdown in economic activity,” said Thierry Wizman, Global FX & Macquarie Strategists.
China’s economy expands 5.4% in the first quarter, which faces growing headlines after strengthening the tariff confrontation in the United States. Given the exorbitant tariffs, the killing of a large wall street shore down to about 4% of China, about 4% lower than about 5%.
The latest economic information from China signaled economic deterioration. Production Procurement managers index dropped a 16-month lowerIn April, the landslide sliding in the lowest export orders since December 2022 fell to the lowest part of 2022.
China leaves trade information on Friday on Friday, the full effects of the fare of tariffs are likely to have full effects.
Anz’s YEUNG, in April, the increase in export growth is 2.2%, the sharp decline is estimated compared to a sustainable decline in connection with the frontline loading. The number of container ships from China to USA was reduced to 42 to 42 by April 21 to 42.
Concerns increased that the enemy will be poured into the labor market. The latest PMI was shown Employment fell on the board Like manufacturers in April production and put employees on paid leave.
Goldman Sachs estimates that 16 million employees, 2% of the country’s workforce participated in the production of border goods.
The latest US judge, who is exempt from low-value goods from the tariffs, has also increased employment concerns in China’s employment intensively, especially China Clothing and consumer electronics.
Whether Beijing blinks
Beijing’s stimulus pushed the trade talks between the United States and China, raising a escalation hopes in trade tensions between the two countries.
“Any measures that can help the Chinese economy grow in front of US imports tariffs will increase China’s transaction power in subsequent talks,” Macquarie’s Wizman said.
China, on Wednesday, in the end of Switzerland, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the Swiss visit this week Required by Washington. Trump without disagreement According to this characteristic.
The planned meeting will mark the first high-level US-China trade talks since the tariff escalation this year.
Although the comprehensive bargaining is complicated and time consuming, analysts are divided into such escalation, but the tariffs can be retreated on both sides.
Robin Xing, Morgan Stanley projects can be reduced to 45% from the current banes of the chief economist, US goods, 45% from current banal levels.
However, attempts to achieve a more comprehensive bargaining similar Trump’s first contract was signedIt is likely that Tianchen Xu, a great economist of both sides, has shown a little appetite to compromise on the relevant strategic priorities and economic red lines.
Could not fulfill China’s commitment According to the phase, the Covid-19 pandemic has hit the US goods and more dollars in US goods and services over two years.
“This conversation will take any place for the upcoming tariff meeting with Bessent.” “Things can worsen, and therefore save the big weapon for the next,” he said, the potential to support the Chinese economy.
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