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Going to war is always a gamble. Iran, Israel and now the dice of all the United States were rolled.
In a short time, it was as if Israel was able to play gambling. Benjamin Netanyahu government managed to kill the Iranian military leadership and seriously damage the country’s nuclear and military infrastructure. Israel has openly succeeded in fighting the United States.
Donald Trump’s decision to join the conflict was partially reacted to the early success of Israel. The US president always sought to seem like a winner and claimed that the United States has claimed “a magnificent military success” after the bomber raids in Iran.
On the contrary, the Iranian government is a gambling game that can “axiate resistance” – if the open confrontation is prevented – badly failed. In decades, Iran sponsored his lawyers like Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthis, while working on its nuclear program, developed their interests throughout the region.
For many years, the Iranian strategy seemed both delicate and effective. In the Gulf notification, in general, four Arab capital – Beirut, Baghdad, Damascus and Sana’a (Yemen) – were appealed at a time. Iran also approached a nuclear weapon.
However, this long-term strategy is now prone. The Assad regime fell in Syria and Hezbollah and Hamas were seriously damaged by Israel. Now the Iranian regime itself is directly attacked.
The average and long-term results of this war are less clear. Israel will fight to turn short-term tactical success – no matter how great it is – long-term security. The United States has a long and painful experience for the initial military victories to become grinding and endless wars. The Iranianu theocracy is an unprecedented attack. However, bombing campaigns rarely lead to regime change. Thus, the regime can be well pasted and live to fight another day.
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his servicemen now face a menu of a depth choices. Emotionally, they will want to return. However, Trump promised to cause more intensive US attacks to Iran.
According to their own interests, the leadership in Tehran can choose to get minimal revenge and then reach the diplomatic choice. However, Iranians say, “Weakness is a provocative,” they can say. A failure that does not respond can invite Israel’s further attacks, but also exploded Iran’s internal enemies.
Tehran will know that Trump decided to bomb against the background of deep misgivings from his supporters – afraid of another US “Forever War”. If Iran strikes American targets in the Middle East – or forced oil prices by closing the Strait of Hormuz – then these misgivings and units in the United States will increase. Trump’s first reaction would be revenge. However, it can change itself at once, especially when it is under internal political pressure.
The United States is also known to have the Middle East weighing in the opposition of heavy losses. Bombing in Beirut in Beirut, the bombing in Beirut in Beirut, the life of 241 Americans costs more than the Lebanon.
Memories like this emphasizes the risks of Trump. Only if the Iranian nuclear program is completely demolished in Iran’s nuclear program, which is completely demolished in Iran, the Iranian regime, the United States or Israel is somehow, allowing the United States.
These results are not very possible. The more alternatives are bad wounded, but still hostile – it can be retreated in an unexpected way. The second presumption followed by a civil conflict that may allow those who follow the civil conflict or terrorists to build a safe ventilation. One of these results will be at risk with the risk of the United States to attract another Middle East War, including place forces.
Uncertainty over Iran’s options and the power of America emphasizes the fragile character of Israel’s current success. The Netanyahu government is currently on many fronts – in many fronts – in Gaza and Iran and in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and the occupied West Bank. There is no clear vision to end any of these conflicts.
Israel has passed a long way to build itself as a super power of the Middle East. It has the support of nuclear weapons and USA. However, in a long period of time, 10 mn is unavailable to dominate a region with several hundred million people in one country.
Israel also takes great risks with relations with the United States. The cruel war in Gaza has severely damaged his reputation with the Democrats. If Netanyahu is now taking the United States to another forever war, American retardation may be bipartonized and long-term against Israel.
In different ways, Iran, Israel and the United States are playing in war. The risk is the end of all as the loser.
