Dark days after tariff apocalypse

It would be difficult for the “Freedom Day”, which was wrongly called the wrong way in the previous week, but it seems to have defiant President Donald Trump Nothing regrets and bent that caused Full market crash. Any forecast that I can now, the markets are pledged to the markets – no doubt should be at a level that it is pulled back – but its rank seems very speed behind its rank.

There were many people who asked what I was surprised by what I had ever declared last Wednesday. Answer: Yes and No. I did not have any information about the use of such a crazy formula to calculate the “mutual” tariffs, but some kind of chaos seemed inevitable. I predicted before the election Trump would be confused because he was promising, “At least five contradictory or obvious impossible policy.”

I look at what the newsletter is short, medium and long-term or at least what it is watching. Grassed watersExploring the information behind the world trade, looks at the market response to the tariff announcement last week. Now the first reader question for a while: How long do you think the tariffs will last? Meets me Alan.beattie@ft.com.

In a short time

Despite the former performance, I do not have a crystallist and have already been wrong in the big thing, the size of China’s Trump’s retaliation for “Freedom Day” tariffs. However, my guide, a few uncertain estimates were thrown here.

Barrels against disaster

What can you move forward with these tariffs and add more in the next few weeks? I really guess the giant waterfall in the markets or industrial production lines, and guess. But I think that this should be a decision that everyone has taken, not everyone to convince him. There are some conversations about the Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who were sent as a voice of financial markets, to leave the control – How could Dorothy Parker, as they talk about the death of Calvin refrigerator? Trump officials who can advise the tariffs against the tariffs cannot convince him.

Work lobbies generally stand up to him, and I suspect that the economic chaos is independently, and if he does not understand, they will listen to them. Also, contradictions in his trade policy were not resolved. It was open disagreement Negotiations on “Freedom Day” tariffs or not. There are some talks that 10 percent “main” tariff is permanent and will remain there for the purposes of access, but it is It is wildly impossible This or really any tariff) This tariff (or any tariff) can make an important contribution to federal finances. We are in the place of five months before the policy match.

To strike back or conclude

China probably decided to shoot more harshly (I also include) a more expected Use more agree with an agreement. Meanwhile, the EU was revenge and is not in the mood of great concessions. Economies are more dependent on the United States – VietnamCambodia and a lesser extent Japan and South Korea – They are in a hurry to agree to what high-one-sided transactions will be. So Javier mercy in Argentinafor more ideological reasons. (Although Milei thinks, his farmers think that he will gain more access to the US market for Soyabean exports.

Otherwise the reaction is more silent. Some countries (Brazil, England) It is not affected. Many of these deals will not have a lot to influence US exports or production. Though The flux of the latest consciousness Secretary of Trade Secretary Howard Lutnick, the United States, which is allowed to visit the TV studio again, does not know that we will not send the iPhone’s iPhone and send to Vietnam. See below for the possible effect of such deals to the world trading system.

Congresses and courts are a long shot

I remain skeptical that the other two other governments are going to do so much to stop these and more tariffs. Republican MPs are clearly concerned about the markets, but there was very little appetite to resist Trump. Chairman of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson actually acted Reduce the effects of Congress in tariffs. Last week to block an emergency of an action in the Senate, an action to prevent the emergency used as a justification for tariffs Poor four republican votes And two-thirds of the two-thirds needed to eliminate President Veto were killed. One of these votes was Mitch McConnell, most of the former Senate, who has very little resistance to Trump’s diary and stepped in carts. (No one, but there is no principle as a retired senator.) As for the courts, in the work already given against the use of international emergency economic forces and Some very prominent scientists argue Have to have a chance. However, the Presidential Executive Power shall be postponed on national security issues very strong.

Down the line

To make technical boxes compulsory

If Trump finds its tariffs, the next stage, if it does not work to install other countries as he wants, will be to start looking at a collection of more modern tools. For today’s Ft Economics Show Podcast (is the transcript here), Georgetown, a professor of political science, Ibrahim Newman interviewed armed with armed. (See him too In foreign affairs Author with Henry Farrell, where US technology companies can lose in a transatlantic digital war paper Agathe Damarais about the European Foreign Relations on the preparation of the European Council of Europe and the Geoeconomic Conflict of Europe.) Interestingly, Europe, Starlink, works in Starlink Expand rapidly and deliver thousands of new internet terminals to Ukraine. I would just observe: Biden management made continuous and determined efforts to use all these tools, but they did not see the technological development of China, and Russia is fighting the Ukrainian war.

The distant noise of the currency war

The governments are understandable that the spread of trade in trade from the US market will be released very cheap around the world trading system. Once Beijing has grown in a growing management in an export management, it is likely to apply more discharge tasks. In the last few decades, it often resulted in a foreign exchange war as everyone tried to compete. We can return to there again. (In this case, success in the Trump management with Mar-A-Lago Accord.) Sander Tordoir and Sahin Vallare thought with some results on a piece of paper for the European Parliament here. One thing to note: This is not the same environment with the devaluation of the 1930s competition currency. After that, the main issue was very intense because the global monetary policy was a gold standard. Thank God, now there is no.

Out of the horizon

The end of a trade period?

Great, long-term question: What is the global trading system like? What to watch is that Vietnam and others have destroyed the most popular nationality under the world trade organization by giving the US special treatment. I am moderately optimistic. These deals label as discounted trading contracts (there are pretty dodgy under the WTO rules, but already there is already very weak PTAS), and many will not differentiate and move forward anyway. This hits me, something increased as a result of a multilateral system, especially the open trade economy, especially as Southeast Asian peoples. If countries are looking for the framework of international trade legislation, the WTO provides it. Unfortunately, I do not see India plays the role of spoiler and paralyze part of the WTO talks and paralyze the WTO’s negotiations.

Grassed waters

If the dollar falls down, everything but the two things that cannot be low with praise can be down.

Trade links

• Looks at ft confidence Sports shoe supply chain In Vietnamese production.

• Trade Mysteries gets the most popular “Great Sam” Lowe in the most popular nation newsletter, but quite unusual victory. In November, the “simple and lazy” formula, which predicts the Trump’s “simple and lazy” (Sam’s words). Actually turned out to be more complicated than the White House used.

• When talking, some estimates that entered the calculation Incredibly bone title tariff formula rejected by scientists who make them. Oops.

• RUCHIR SHRAMA, ROCKEFELLER International Head, leach The federal reserve should not save the US economy from Trump’s tariffs.

• Wall Street Journal from the point of view One of the states of tariffs, which tariffs must help.

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