The dollar index (DXY00) + 0.42% increased on Thursday. The US economy came to dollars after the wage report, which is stronger than expected to continue the ongoing power in the US economy. The dollar also saw a support of the 10-year-long 10-year-note-notes by +7 BP, and the interest rate that sees support from differential. The dollar also supported the market as the chances of cutting the rate of nutrition from 29-30 to 29-30 to 5% from 29-30 to 29-30 to 5% in the market.
On the contrary, the dollar decreased with a safe shelter demand with a rally on Thursday. In addition, the US trade deficit report gently separated the dollar.
The US trade deficit was $ 71.5 billion in trade deficit – $ 71.0 billion and the revised April – $ 60.3 billion. Exports can be -4.0% m / m. May imports -0.1% m / m, April -16.3% attended.
The house passed the Senate from the festival to the reconciliation bill of the afternoon and sent to President Trump for his signature. The Next Congress Budget Management estimates that the bill will add about $ 3.3 trillion to budget deficits over the next decade. The financial incentive for the bill will be paid to the US economy, but higher cutting also increases the risk of the last debt crisis in the United States.
The approved reconciliation bill included a ceiling of the $ 5 trillion debt ceiling, so late or early autumn will occur without the early fall. The debt ceiling ceiling continues in 2027, which will not worry about this issue in the next two years of markets.
A minus factor for the dollar, Fox for Fox Federation Fox’s Fox’s FOX campaign, which is the strongest in the “slightly turning” campaign, which is stronger than expected, the 2-year T-Note productivity increased to 3.88%.
Treasury crop curve continues to fight new inflationary pressures from the Terms of Inflation, which are high-short-term rates, highly short-term rates, and new inflationary pressures. Any artificial inflationary pressure can cause severe inflationary pressure to reduce low interest rates from the ideal levels, and in short-term interest rates, a result can cause a leash power.
Mr Bessent hopes that the leadership hoped to fill two empty fed seat next year, or the Fed in May 2026, Fed did not end up to January 2028
Trade talks are focused on July 9 to implement mutual tariffs. The EU, the President of the EU Commission Ursula Von Der Leyen’s comments on Thursday, this aims to agree on the principle of US by July 9. He said that a complete trade agreement can be reached to reach the full trade agreement until July 9. President Trump said that the trade agreement with Japan on Tuesday was impossible, so the country will most likely pay 30%, 35% or “anything we identified” tariff.
According to Friday, the non-farm wage report was more powerful than +106,000 expectations of +147,000. Given that the salary report came as a slight surprise, the markets, 2-1 / 4 years, the first decline in the ADP employment report came to a weak report after giving a drop in the employment report. In June, the increase in wage than expected, was managed in government and local governments, including the increase in public education. On the contrary, personal salaries are only +74,000, the weakness of the labor market has increased from visual and local governments. June production wages can be appropriate for salaries -7,000. April-May had about 16,000 + 16,000 up to 16,000.
In addition, the unemployment rate of June -0.1, 4.1%, reduced to 4.1%, which states a strong labor market than expectations for +0.1 points. The unemployment rate in June is 4.1% in 8 decades, in April 2023, 3.4%.
In some positive news for inflation, the average hourly earnings of June + 0.2% m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / m / / 3.9% fell below y / y.
Preliminary unemployment claims – up to 233,000 to 233,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations. The ongoing allegations were changed by 1,964 million, 1,962 million expectations than the expectations.
June ISM US services index increased from 49.9 to 49.9 in May, increased by 50.6 to the +0.7 point of expectations. June ISM services prices have decreased from 67.5 to 67.5 to 67.7 to 67.7 to 67.7 to 67.5 in May, 67.5 points to 67.5 points.
The last June S & P US services PMI was taken from the initial report of 53.1 to 52.9 to 52.9. The latest June S & P has been revised to a composite PMI, 52.8 to 52.8 to +0.1 points to +0.1 points 52.9, 52.8 was revised more powerful than expectations for an unusual report.
The US factory orders are a rebound in accordance with market expectations + 8.2% m / m, reduced to 3.9% of May. The ex-transportation of the US plant increased by 8.2% m / m in accordance with market expectations.
Markets are discounted on July 29-30, a 5% chance of a -25 BP ratio in the FOMC meeting.
EUR / USD (^ Eurusd) fell on Thursday -0.43%, mainly due to the power of dollars. EURO also expressed concern about the power of the euro, ECB officials in the June session, ECB officials for ECB policy. ECB also expressed concern over the eurozone economy due to trade uncertainty.
In some positive news for Euro, the last June HCOB HCOB Eurozone services PMI was not reconsidered to 50.5 from 50.0 to 50.5, no adjustment is stronger than expected. The composite PMI has revived from 50.2 to 50.6.
Swaps are prices in a 6% chance of a single -25 BP by ECB in the July 24 policy session.
USD / JPY (^ USDJPY) increased sharply + 0.94%. President Trump’s trade was under pressure on Tuesday’s trade in connection with Trump’s trade trade, which indicates that it is possible for trade with Japan will be possible, 35%, 35% or “any tariff defined”.
August Gold (GCQ25) closed on Thursday -16.80 (-0.50%) and September Silver (SIU25) Closed +0.357 (+ 0.97%). Strong dollars and T-notes increased stronger than expected, a stronger reward report compared to gold prices. However, Silver, on Thursday, said US economic reports continue in the US economy.
On the day, the rich Asplund, this article did not have any positions (direct or indirect) in the securities. All information and information in this article are for informational purposes only. This article was originally published Barchart.com
