Donald Trump-A Jay Powell needs

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Good morning. Here, from a week from a week, a beautiful Santa Fe, beşnli, relax, ready and turquoise look at the jewelry. Yesterday, a unhappy market gave me a comfortable sense that nothing is changing in the sense that nothing has been changed. If I missed something, please email me: robert.ammstrong@ft.com.

Trump will probably not try to force Powel because it would be a fun dumb thing

The market does not like this when the president threatens the Federal Reserve Department. Of course, Donald Trump was sad about Jay Powell, but yesterday’s correspondent was more acidic and Trump’s advisor Kevin arrived after Kevin Hassett gossip The White House, Medesome Central Banker’s Riding Trump will continue to “learn.” Shares fall down, gives below the dollar, giving a short product, long income, variability, golden path. Cook.

Wait to continue your fist. But I do not think that Trump Powell will try to shoot; I would have been likely to happen in about 10 percent. I think this is because Trump’s interests will be in their own interests.

Yesterday was a delight of how he would respond with a successful attempt to drag outside the work of Powel before taking place. The first order has expected the secondary economic impact on market effects and fed independence that the leadership of the political capital must be legally legally legally legalized and will be legally legally legally legalized and will be legally legally implemented. Spit rarely already It is heard in the peripherals of the Republican Party on the Economic Policy of Trump. There is no endless room to say goodbye.

If he announced the option for the next nutrition chair and before receiving testimony, Powel fired, perhaps it would be more terrible for the market.

Not only the high risks of the action that has to disperse Trump; There are also fewer returns. The impact of destruction of the independence of the Central Bank may affect market shock and monetary policy. The market shock, a stock price and higher bond prices, ie a lower stock and bond prices, which will increase the expected volatility of inflation and rates, regardless of what newly designated chairs.

The new chair will probably give impetus to reduce ratio. This can be a correct call. The negative impact on the growth of tariffs can exceed inflation effects. Or maybe inflation effects would be one time. It is difficult to predict. However, Trump will not pay for better money policy with a market shock that can easily lead to a recession. Recipes remove all entertainment from low prices. On the other hand, if the cutting ratios are an incorrect decision, inflation will return and the ratios will be higher than reducing the risk of recession, otherwise they are. There is also an important cost to get rid of Powell: if the economy continues to decrease, there is nothing without a flawless thing. If Trump takes a seat fed a pet, he owns each of what happened.

All this, there is no more thank you for choosing a seat fed up a year ago. I think the risk / reward mixture to force Powel is terrible and Trump will see it.

(By the way, the end of the fed independence, I almost said that Bond prices below Everything else is equal. But there can be nothing else. If the market shock is bad enough, the bond market can verge in inflation risks and decline, and the gardens may rise immediately).

Expressing the forecast of such trust, readers should know that the range of Wall Street opinion on this issue is wide. Yesterday, the head of a major wealth manager told me that the trump chances forcing Powel’s power:

Very low (as), of course, would lead to a capital flight from the United States. But Trump is nervous and he will stop talking about it, and as a result, the markets will priced in paranoia.

A wall street strategist agreed:

I put the bet around zero. When I saw John Kennedy, the Bank committee in the Bank Committee, the Bank Committee, you have fully understanded and fully understanding and wanted, and intensify, will have a body slam for Treasury and Dollar.

On the other hand, a large leadership in a large fund, it does not matter: it does not matter:

50/50. . . Trump wins Sorta either way. If there is a bear market or a recession, he can accuse him of fire. What if not, you can get a loan to fire. . . If it happens, it will not be surprised. Markets move on surprise. I think the fire is already moving more than the market. I guess it happens if there is a short leap. Its pronoun would be the basis and would be a temporary default (JOHN) Williams (New York Fedin Chairman), simply mean the same

Another active manager CIO thinks the more likely it:

Prices are more than 50 percent. Trump already showed that these things are less and completely retaliated

In both cases, it is done. Wait for continuous pressure on dollars, proportions and streams. More and more foreign investors are neutralized and will continue to leave us. (Foreign direct investment) is a very simple room – 1) Rule of law 2) Political / structural stability 3) It is a reliable system to raise disputes and arbitrate. Three coups on the front front.

I think there is a lot of damage to make it and if this Trump is not already, it will eventually recognize it. Betting marketsWorth to pay attention, place a 26 percent chance at Powell at the beginning of the year. I think this is very high.

A good reading

M & A Guys Rights firms, when running law firms What does the government tell them to make.