Donald Trump’s Investment Deal is a Mirage

Hi readers. If there is something, US President Donald Trump is more than the size of the crowd in rallies, the level of investment collateral provided by companies and countries.

The White House protects the list of the President’s second-term transactions The Website contains “Trump effect”. The Commander-in-Chief of the Commander of the Commander recently claimed that the obligations confirmed that the tariff in America would result in a booming boom. This week, I try their claims.

The list of the White House is undoubtedly impressive. However, the 10-month-old figure – which Trump referring to the beginning of last month – it’s wrong.

For beginners, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs, companies for more than 2 months in $ 2 months, he estimated that foreign governments were pledged from 4TN. This is at least 6tn, at least $ 6 billion – about 20 percent of the US economy. (Since Goldman’s analysis, future liabilities were made.)

Total Greenfield’s total cost of foreign investment ads – capital in the first period of capital invested for new facilities and operations, and Joe Biden is also in advance in the leadership of Joe Biden.

So how much will it all happen?

First, the hostages are certainly not the same as the investments carried out. For companies and countries, the presidential administration is typical for the announcement of projects in favor of the pre-projects in favor of the Supreme.

Looking at the promises made in the first term of Trump, Goldman Sachs estimates that 80 percent of investment liabilities are actually realized. Although firmly, some high-profile projects are included in the goals. Alibaba, in January 2017, set up a plan to create a job. Foxconn, Wisconsin’da a production investment plan for $ 10 billion, watering up to $ 672 million.

Taking into account the extensive tariff threats, the incentives is becoming more strengthening to decorate investment plans. “US partners returned to the 1980s of trade tensions and the United States in the 1980s,” Right Investment “, the main items in BCA Studies, the main items in BCA’s research are considered to be a truly hyperbolic and political effect.”

This is supported by information from FDI markets. The group also follows signals that a foreign company can cause investment as a new investment strategy. This sees that as the share of all the global signals in business, as this year has jumped to the highest levels this year, as soon as it is the signals to invest in the United States.

This offers a very likely possible proportion of 80 percent conversions.

However, according to the analysis of the Cato Institute, other ways of the White House are also deceptive. “The list includes earlier planned projects,” SCOTT Linkicome, Vice President in the thinking tank. “Other items have a conditional walking room in the indefinite periods or economic environment.”

Some of the bigger liabilities are really interested. Apple promised to invest $ 500 billion in the United States for the next four years. Again, only $ 10 billion in capital expenditures spent $ 10 billion and $ 31.4 billion on a global scale Goldman Sachs notes last year. Nvidian’s $ 500 billion liability is equally suspicious.

For companies, the gap between the promised and the current investment shows that the title capture figures can be obnected by the partnership, obtaining or production costs. As for the promises of the countries, both Saudi Arabia and Qatar “Deals”, which increased American exports, increasing American exports, which increases American exports.

This raises a wider point: Great investment numbers are definitely not turning on GDP or business earnings.

In the presentation, investment ads did not have significant improvements to the expectations of capital expenditures at a company level. Goldman Sachs’s latest investment companies, Goldman Sachs’s capital analysts, about 70 percent of capital analysts, have long coincided with their plans.

“Consensus forecasts for investment and economic growth have not been changed in response to these announcements,” said Mark Zandi, Moody’s Chief Economist Moody’s Analytics said. “If there is something, many investments have been significantly weakened due to the Global Trade War.”

Whether there are really new investments, it is likely to be exposed to the impact of many projects due to the uncertainty of many projects. Indeed, the indicator of the BCA research in the United States is in the regulation of business investment intentions.

The increase in the construction of the American construction of the American construction and the community of chips and science and the increase in the construction costs, climbed into the summit. Trump’s well-known liking has basic-time initiatives Created uncertainty around the state of tax credits and subsidies. 2024 The election was put under both programs as soon as the closing of the scene.

Especially the lack of clarification on tariffs significantly reduces the chances of successful construction plans. Import duty rates are subject to the world’s trade partners and the white house and now courts.

The production of transferred production, often covers a very timely basic surplus surplus surplus. Rational Bordrooms will not risk the risks by breaking a place on new devices with the less competition of the tariff rates again and the investments invested in new devices. In many industries, US production costs are higher than the first three countries currently exported to the United States, according to the analysis of Goldman.

Levy plans the issue here in both the Trump sector and the country. For example, car manufacturers, who are not wanting to jump from the tariff wall, should keep the marks in coffins related to entrances such as steel and copper.

There are other limited factors outside the tariffs. Two-thirds of production facilities in the United States, which are of the last bank of the latest bank in America, consider the existence of a qualified salary as an important concern questionnaire.

Administration’s access to universities and research risks to highly qualified workers, unparalleled attacks on the speech attack, work on documentary migrants hit the workforce. The process is also delayed by permits.

And then 899, Trump has a provision in a great beautiful law, which gives the power to determine revenge taxes to foreign investment taxes to the Treasury Secretary. This Tax Fund More than 80 percent of the current US FDI Foundation comes from the nations covered by the legislation.

All of the formation of any proposed factory, the use of the product, or hiring or hiring hiring or hiring. Even if the projects occur, they may not convey any results.

The Peteron has a great fellow of the International Economic Institute, consumer-cluster’s collateral in Kimberly-Clard’s $ 2 billion, which is linked to a strategic reconstruction and expenses opened a year ago. “Kimberly-Clark wants to expand the power of the United States, but also new devices will be used highly automated and highly qualified work – blue collar work is not prospective.”

Indeed, due to the initial concern of production costs and labor existence, the United States is unlikely to manage important employment. “These companies, which are completed, are likely to replace the costs associated with increasing automation,” Bofa adds global research.

Trump is not alone in crisis on investment hostages. Most presidents do it. This Biden-Harris While the White House has been late or suspended, the private sector’s liabilities have been more than 1TN.

Again, this can be the discrepancy between these management investment and the work of the fact, the most exaggerated, Trump’s operation and whimsical policy.

The net general investment continues, if it continues, may seem terrible until the end of Trump’s second period. Currently, internal capital expenditures are mainly occupied or canceled. The outgoing FDI projects may even be able to prevent companies from avoiding vengeance measures in the United States. Automatic individuals think to change to China, taking into account the stranger Rare earth magnets.

Over time, there is a reason to be optimistic. To announce investment plans to the United States for some companies and nations, it is a long-term strategic game to be exposed to its rival market and technology (albeit at the moment). “Some pledges suggest that in the future to promise the simplicity of one side to overcome the truth of an author,” he said. If politics stabilizes, the beds can catalyze projects.

But now, Trump’s investment deals are mainly a mirage.

Send your rebutals and thoughts freelunch@ft.com or x @ TeamPperikh90.

Food for thinking

The European Central Bank has lowered interest rates to the lowest level since 2022. Again, the average interest rate in the euro region is expected to increase. That is.

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Sunday free dinner is edited by Harvey Nripia