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Guests and participants, April 24, 2025, the IMF / World Bank Group in Washington visits and wander at the IMF in ICT.
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After the prevailing of pandemic, supply chains, energy and inflation, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund’s Spring meetings had a new issue of the agenda: tariffs.
The IMF has set the tone by launching the week with the release of the latest economic forecasts Us, Uk and Many Asian countries. Economists, central bankers and politicians are negotiating behind the panels and scenes, many are trying to carry out trade tensions between China and the United States have – or Perhaps not – Cooling.
Politicians from the European Central Bank, CNBC spoke this week, a sweet tension showing them, showing them saw the interest rates on going on and the risk from a few bottoms Eurozone inflation. However, the current high levels of all of them are highly level for maintaining monitoring information and the growth worldview In an interview with the Governor of England Andrew Bailey Bank with CNBC Thursday.
These were some basic messages from ECB members this week.
Kristin Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank
About inflation and monetary policy:
“We are going to our goal in 2025 (inflation), which is nearing completion of the disinulation process.
“The net effect on inflation will depend on what countermeasure Finally, it is done by Europe. Then we should take into account (German) financial boost By defense investments, by the infrastructure fund. “
“We have seen consistent actions, you know, announcement (From US tariffs), and then a take a breakThen and then some freedoms. So we need to be very careful … or we stop or pause or take a break, but we will depend on the limit. “
Market actions:
“After we saw our projects, I expected it … It would evaluate the dollar and evaluated the euro. It is not what we see. And there were some intuitive action in different categories.”
“The German market has a positive way in a short time, as a result of the German government, a while ago, in a way to protect against the German government, a large fund for the development of infrastructure.”
Klaas knot, head of the Netherlands
The tariff is about uncertainty:
“If I look back in the last 14 years, I think in the preliminary days of the pandeme that it was now uncertainty that we are now.”
“In the short run, this is an uncertainty created by the unpredictability of the U.S. government’s tariffs, uncertainty is created as a strong negative factor.
To the effect of inflation:
“We will grow lower in the short term. We will probably have lower inflation.
“However, the worldview of inflation in the mid-term is not clear. However, there are adverse factors. You can accept.
In 2025, the cut and market prices for a ratio of June to cut two more ECB degrees:
“I am fully open. I think it’s very quick to take a position in June, and be another cut. It will be completely dependent on the forecasts.”
“We need to see a more structured analysis of the impact on the inflation profile, and I can only say that if the market is valuable.”
Robert Holzmann, Austrian National Bank Governor
There is more information about the tariffs and needs to wait for news:
“We have not seen these uncertainty for years … Uncertainty We will have to keep our decisions for correct decisions, and therefore, we do not know that money policy should be relocated.”
“Before considering the information in the detail, what political decisions will be made? Do we have some tariff growth? Do we have a strong tariff increase?
ECB’s April rate is cut:
“I think there is a wide consensus (proportion). But, of course, people in the margin differ.”
“At the moment, at this time, this was not clear this time (tariff) to obtain the opposite instructions.
In the direction of interest rates:
“I think that the last noises ended in this situation, in this case, it can be changed in different decisions, but can imagine the result and other directions.
“This year can be further reduced, but the number is still superior.”
Matrtiņš Cossacks, Bank of Latvia Governor
Take the opportunity to:
“All this uncertainty and sensitivity is the time for Europe.”
“It is time for Europe to realize all aspects of being an economic superpower and a full-fledged political and geopolitical superpower, and this has not been fully implemented in the past.”
“Therefore, this political will, the political bowels require these decisions and strengthen the European economy and put it in a global world.”
About the market reaction to tariffs:
“It looks relatively regular … if the financial markets are working less or less if one is running into Europe, we have not seen a spread or so spread.”
“However, this uncertainty is extremely high because of macro scenarios, these uncertainty, possible results, multiple scenarios and their probabilities are very similar to the basic (tariff) scenario.”
