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Unlock Watch Bulletin Free from White House
Your guide to Washington and the world for the 2024 election of the United States
Donald Trump decided on March 3, two highly significant decisions. Was one to apply tariff 25 percent in Canada and Mexico, as well as Chinese imports, as well as 10 percent of 10 percent of 10 percent, 10 percent were placed on top of 10 percent. One 25 percent tariff It is expected to be watched according to EU imports. Together, these four economies produce 61 percent of the United States. Another and more important decision, to suspend military aid to Ukraine, giving the country that appears to be the choice between subsidiary and defeat. Trump’s friend Vladimir Putin must be ecstatic: US President remains separate from the West before his happy eyes.
These are only two decisions in the hurricane, which accompanied the second Trump presidency. But it is very important for the outside world. The world’s strongest country and the system of the system, a country that creates its own country, is represented by liberal, projected and rules managed. They also represent the abandonment of obligations in favor of a closer relationship with the US key unions and first-class enemies. Trump considers Russia more important than Europe.
In both cases, he is very wrong. Like Maurice barrierThe IMF’s former chief economist, the US trade deficiencies are not due to the fact that trading partners are excluded from income, but the most profitable federal financial deficiency, About 6 percent of GDP currently. Senate managed by the Republic Plan Trump’s 2017 tax reduction to permanent As long as the markets funded, this deficit guarantees the least how long. Given this, the attempts to close trade with tariffs are like trying to break a balloon.
To understand this, some knowledge of macroeconomics are required, which does not have a stick. But this is not his only stupidity. Trump says too“Let’s be honest, the European Union was established to screw the United States. This is the purpose of this. And they did a good job.” He said about Europe: “They do not take our cars, do not buy our farm, almost nothing and we get everything from them.”
Both complaints are stupid. The EU, prosperous economic relations and political cooperation was formed to bring two terrible war to the devastated continent. The United States has been understood for a long time and promoted this sensitive answer. But this, unfortunately, was something very different from today’s self-pity.
Moreover, as Denmarkan economist, Jesper Rangvid On the blog, Trump looks only in bilateral trade in the goods, and ignoring the services and the capital and the capital and the capital and the capital. This is the fact that the United States has obtained from the export of services to the Eurozone service exports and capital and export revenues from the export of goods and exports to finance its bilateral deficiencies. The current account balance of the total eurozone is not the case, not so close to zero. However, the bilateral remains of single goods are less important than total bilateral remains. Given how he won his money, Trump is a great cut in the goods all his life. It is unlikely that seems to be very harmful. (See diagrams.)
Economic costs of these tariffs for Mexico and Canada will be high, because in 2023, 21 percent of GDP in the United States compared to goods in the United States and 21 percent of GDP. Again, it would be an unfair, indeed economically illiterate, an action of economic war. The EU had to take revenge. Transatlantic relations will always be damaged.
Also a trade war or, Compared to Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s ambush in the Oval Office Suspend to the post-US president and Deputy Chairman to the Ukraine. The goal can force Zelenskyy to sign the mineral contract. But the bigger problem, since Zelenskyy is incontinent in Putin, there is no reason to trust Trump for a good reason and now. In addition, Trump may ask for “Peace Deal”, but why would Putin agree to the real one, if Ukraine is for him to take it?
Both men do not appreciate the will for the freedom of Ukrainians. However, if this goal is to be achieved, Europe will have to take the burden of providing its defense and the basis of Ukraine. Friedrich Merz, the next German Chancellor, said, “The absolute priority is definitely a priority, step by step, the United States can be achieved. These steps must be drawn quickly. It will be able to accelerate one’s transfer 200BN euros seized in Russian reserves to Ukraine. Another one will now have a great defense facility that the United States has fallen into NATO’s commitment.
The United States and UK are combined with the United Russia 3.6 times in the UK, 5.7 times larger than combining Russia and GDP. The problem, then, if it is not a lack of man or economic sources, Europe can work effectively, because the difficulty is in the middle running Europe cannot have some important military equipmentThis is about this dependent on Ukraine. Would the United States refuse to give such a weapon if buying them? Such a refusal for supplies would be the moment of truth.
Trump is conducting an economic and political war for US allies and dependence. However, the collapse of the countries used to share their values will cost the United States as well.
