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US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell speaks at Chicago in Chicago in Chicago on April 16, 2025.
Kamil Krzaczynski | AFP | Getty pictures
The federal reserve includes a political decision closely followed by a strong promotion to do anything on Wednesday.
President Donald Trump faced unresolved questions on an economy that signaling the tariffs and both significant strengths and weaknesses, and the central banking politicians can do a little other than sitting and waiting for events.
“This meeting will be awkward. The Fed, there is no forecast to deliver anything about the next pair of meetings,” he said. “The Fed had to wait two things: the policy should be seen in fact … But when demonstrated, how much inflation expectations should be seen. Therefore, go slowly.”
Indeed, futures mean market prices There is no chance of cutting interest rate On this week’s meeting and the CME Group on June 17-18, only 1 of one action in 17-18 Fedwatch Gauge.
Sunday expectations were transferred to both mixed economic signals, as well as in response to the signs of President Donald Trump Being at least a little aggressive in his tariff approach. The White House pointed out that there is close to the completion of several trading deals, although no one has been announced yet.
Reinhart said that the company is a little intense than market expectations for the three discounts that started in July this year. A week ago, the markets were betting in four cuts starting in June.
Direction from Powell
Fed Jerome powder At the post-meeting news conference, he and his colleagues to explain the policy title where they saw.
“The other illegal parties do not know what to do in June,” Reinhart said. “So he will have to say that everything is on the table. He always says that, but this time it will be to say that.”
To prevent POWELL, both politicians, spending and employment, ask how to nuture with pessimism and business executors, however, the economy and business executors see a picture of a pessimism.
While The gross domestic product decreased by 0.3% in annual assessment rate In the first quarter, it was mainly a product of Trump’s April 2, an increase in imports. April Sfarm Salary Report He showed that he continued with the rental pace with the economy, added 177,000 jobs to the economy for months.
At the same time, the production and service sector surveys show deep concern from the tariffs from inflation and supply. Also Consumer optimism is in perennial opportunities Inflation expectations are in many decades.
All this adds to a tight bag to walk through the June Meeting for Powell and CO.
This time there is no ‘point plot’
“Fed, at a press conference, wait at a press conference, wait for patience. Wait to see more information,” said Tony Rodriguez, head of Fixed income strategy in Nuveen Tony Rodriguez. “I am very uncertainty to move right now, but if they start to see the weakness in the employment market, prepare to move.”
Nuveen is also waiting for only two inconspations this year and the Fed navigation navigation growth and tariff burning price increases after two more.
“You’re going to see anything in this meeting we wait,” said Rodriguez. “I need to see harder information that we don’t think it would be really clear until they just call June or July. I would think the September session like a first cut.”
This meeting does not renew the “Point Plateau” of individual member expectations for Fed, economic forecasts or interest rates. Will come in June. Thus, the degree determination will remain in Powelle in the Powelle news conference to make any instructions of post-congregation statement and Powell’s collective thinking of the congregation.
“We think this will take a few months to prove to prepare for the cut,” said Goldman Sachs Economist David Mericle noted. Goldman expects Fed to cut in September and October in September and October, in July, in September and October.
A wild card in the equation: Trump, as he did in his first period, Called the fedin to reduce prices The inflation is as approaching the 2% lens of the Central Bank.
However, despite the public releases of Trump’s public statements, despite the public releases of Trump’s public statements, Trump’s public disclosures in the division of BNY economists.
“The White House, Jay Powell made a favor together. Because in general, it is less to criticize each other when a family is criticized from abroad.” “Now you’re criticizing Jay Powell now and take yourself to the President? Probably if you work on your whole life in the Federal Reserve System.”
