‘Freedom Day’ should we expect

Good morning. The shares, especially the technical shares, yesterday there was a ugly morning, but the afternoon rally. Biotech shares, especially modern, Charles Tea Laboratories and other vaccines, was more difficult after the vaccination of the top food and drug control resigned the weekend. Send us an email: robert.ammstrong@ft.com and Aiden.reiter@ft.com.

Salvation Day

Tomorrow President Trump’s Azadlig Day: Home, HOME, especially in mutual tariffs, will announce the essence of trade policy. Although the Wall Street research regions, the conversation of many uncertainty in the box of Hilekmed, there are quite a fairly clear opinion. There are four points of a large but difficult universal agreement (note that most of the study, Trump’s weekend commentary “essentially” in the “essentially” will be stuck in the US trade partners with tariffs):

• The Tariff Program announced by Trump is between 10-20 percent, and most commentators will leave medium-scale accounts with most commentators in the lower half of this range. These figures have a large number of graphs floating around to compare historical levels. This comes from David Seif Nomura:

• Dərhal və ya yaxınlıqdakı tariflər, ABŞ (Çin, Mexiko, Vyetnam, Çin, Tayvan, Çin, Cənubi Koreya, Kanada, Tayland, Tayland, İtaliya, İsveçrə və Malayziya) olan ən böyük ticarət balanssızlığı olan ölkələr qrupu haqqında elan ediləcəkdir. These will be applied using one or other executive privilege.

• The introduction of sector tariffs from car tariffs will be thrown until a later date waiting for the further study of management. Semiconductors, pharmacy, wood and copy sector tariffs are expected.

• Many of the Wall Street will remain free to have potential mitigation of tariffs in Mexico and Canada, perhaps the goods “appropriate” between the USMCA Trade Agreement between the three countries.

On the other hand, Wall Street does not know what to think about two important points. It is unknown that these tariffs will “collect” and only the highest tariff will be applied. And the severity of non-tariff barriers (quotas, license restrictions, other taxes, etc.), real or imaginaryNot all is known.

The tariffs are very clear for market impacts, consensus, capital (profit decrease) and the dollar (“relief valve) (” relief valve) relative prices “. Many also look positive for bond prices. Behold, Michael Zezas, head of the US Policy Survey at Morgan Stanley, ends yesterday:

The most useful result for stable income compared to the shares is one of the most important that investors are highly clarified to tariff trips. This is a clear sign that the tariff difference, foreign consumption and non-tariff barriers and non-tariff barriers, as well as non-tariff barriers, as well as barnu partners to reduce new movements. Here, for our economists, there are clearly disadvantages of low consensus US growth expectations.

Is this already valuable? Most analysts say “no”. The important thing does not believe that no one believes that there is a trump, but at a time, it will actually continue to do so when the market price is.

Trump, loves uncertainty, because keeping their opponents outside the balance and holds attention. Soon it is not going to change. If we receive reducing policy uncertainty on Wednesday, it is expected to provide temporary and temporary proven.

Wealthy consumers

Rich are the engine of US consumption. Households in the top 10 percent of the revenue distribution, half of the last year, the Moody’s Analytics increased a few years ago, Mark Zandi said:

Their expenditure share has risen over the years, but since the pandemic, due to the significantly, because of the increase in stock values ​​and home values. (Expensive) homes and shares are disproportionate to those who are well-known. This caused a strong wealth effect: People (value) are more aggressive for their wealth, than they owe, or their wealth, as wealth (value).

Asset inflation If the pandemic consumption boom has not been able to cause a decrease in weakening markets? Can a decline be a decline if the rich is backed?

We have received a little soft indicators that can easily get easier in the wealthy spending. Michigan University’s Consumer Development Survey showed that it sank among the other two-thirds of the gains faster than other cohors:

Weashier households are more exposed to the stock market, and this is the final correction. According to Federal Reserve, 10 percent of the householders in the United States are 10 percent of the wealth in the United States, 87 percent of all capital. 23 percent of the above 23 percent. Since November, the richest US households have been the best US households since the selected election week of the United States, compared to $ 656 billion for 90 percent, it was 2.7 billion. Yesterday, we note The most recent PCE data showed something softer than the proportion of personal savings and expected consumption. Wealthy households can explain most of this.

But the effect should not exceed. Correction, the brokerage of good works has been branded to brokerage accounts, only 10 percent of the total assets: 10 percent, 3 percent, 3 percent, 3 percent, 3 percent, 3 percent, and 3 percent are 3 percent. According to Shamuel tombs, in Pantheon, in the Macroeconomics of the Chief Economist, even after the amendment, the highest 20 percent of earnings, previous slowdings and low-saving cohorts, there are many liquid assets (of the tombs):

In the restaurant and hotel sectors, we did not see the two areas of two consumptions. Historically, according to the tombs, the large stock exchange rate of the Great Stock Exchange has always caused the highest income consumers withdraw:

Income, 20 percent of households continued to increase their expenditures in 2001 and 2002, (a), 12 percent and 22 percent, as well as in 2022 (-18 percent).

The Veal Family, the higher price elasticity of the demand can pass any inflation from Trump’s tariffs, as they have increased in inflation in 2022. Tariffs will be used in the most affected sectors: production, home correction and consumer electronics.

Withdrawal by rich consumers would be very interested in the economy. Sunday may be a large foot of another big foot. But it looks rich to continue to look rich so far.

(To repeat)

Correction

In yesterday’s letter, the Core PCE bear said he had increased in 4 months a month. This was a mistake – this was still the highest monthly rose to January 2024, which was 0.4 percent. We’re sorry.

A good reading

An open, open communication.