Global recession on the cards

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• Daily in today’s CEO: Geoff Colvin is on the influence of tariffs in Trump’s corporate gain areas.
• Great story: Forecasts wait for the global recession.
• Markets: Worst since the coviet in 2020.
• Analytical notes Jpmorgan, Wedbush, UBS and Oxford economy from the economy related to the risk of economic contraction under the rules of global trade.
• Moreover: All News and Sucicooler chat Fortune.

Tomorrow. Today’s economic chaos, which sparked by the new tariffs of President Trump, can be shocked, but not new. A similar story, eight years ago, played in the first term of Trump as President. He took a look at what he did and followed by echo-resubitors, investors and consumers. And no inspiring.

Unlike the current time, confident in the back, then immediately did not start the commercial war. He dedicated his first year as a president to execute the president and reduce a historical tax through Congress. CEOs were a jubilant. However, in January, the second year showed that he declared a tariff man. Tariffs applied in China, and then quickly expanded the tariffs to more countries. The party is over. Specially:

Tariffs helped several US companies, but also injured thousands of others. For example, Trump has applied a painful value of the thousands of producers, which are excellent for several US sellers, but the painful value of thousands of producers using steel. Expand the steel sample in the economy and the result was a tough fist for profit. In the Trump’s office, the first year (2017), before applying tariffs, the US corporate gain increased by 8%. In the following five quarters, tariffs, the profit reverse, decreased by 1.5%, annually.

Stock prices flickered. Trump has increased by 27.3% annually in S & P 500 until January 2016 in January 2016. In addition, S & P with tariffs increased (January 2018 to November 2019)

Ceos reverse their views to Trump. Immediately after gaining Trump in 2016, the cartridges increased their confidence in the conference staff, and the trust changed the new level in the new level during the first year of Trump. However, immediately after announcing trade wars, CEO’s trust has entered the unprecedented levels since the worst days of the financial crisis in 2008-09.

It should be noted that Trump implements its main economic policy in the reverse order following its first term. Then he took the tax bill in the first place, then turned into tariffs. Now declare a historic trade war, it will hold 2025 in the tax invoice scheduled for sunset on December 31. It will try to reduce the bill to taxes and even taxes. If successful, it can restore ebbing support since business leaders, investors and consumers. But it can be a great “if” and a great “. – Geoff Colvin

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Contact CEO every day through Diane.brady@fortune.com

This story was first displayed Fortune.com

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